***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 36.4 25.4 42.2 91.0 45.6 44.4 21.7 30.4 43.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 35.9 29.6 36.2 89.6 49.1 45.4 22.6 30.0 38.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 26.0 34.3 42.4 91.2 47.9 44.4 28.9 38.1 47.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 25.8 36.4 49.4 91.5 48.3 44.5 28.5 36.6 60.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 29.2 36.7 49.8 95.2 51.0 46.1 31.9 36.6 45.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 37.6 32.9 49.3 96.5 50.4 47.5 23.5 32.5 45.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 31.1 24.4 34.8 88.3 46.6 44.2 19.4 25.5 32.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 54.4 60.6 53.1 93.3 48.3 45.7 55.5 62.2 76.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 25.2 30.9 50.4 95.1 48.1 45.8 26.2 33.0 41.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 33.0 41.9 54.8 97.1 51.1 47.6 29.4 41.9 51.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 25.1 33.2 49.3 96.0 51.0 46.8 25.6 33.0 42.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 41.3 38.9 47.8 93.3 47.9 45.4 33.6 39.3 42.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 29.8 40.2 51.5 96.9 51.1 48.0 30.7 40.1 47.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 40.3 46.4 52.9 90.7 46.3 44.1 40.6 51.5 67.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 18.2 24.8 41.6 81.1 41.8 40.1 16.5 36.4 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 39.1 36.8 49.1 96.8 51.3 47.7 25.8 36.4 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 30.7 24.6 33.1 86.1 45.9 42.7 19.9 25.2 40.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 31.7 40.8 57.1 96.9 50.1 48.5 29.4 40.8 45.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 26.0 35.6 38.2 90.6 49.4 45.7 24.7 35.8 42.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 29.8 38.9 62.1 87.7 44.8 43.6 29.8 40.4 52.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 44.4 36.2 46.6 92.7 47.0 44.9 25.0 38.5 48.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 24.7 30.6 34.9 85.4 46.7 42.6 22.9 31.4 42.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 34.0 30.9 41.6 91.3 47.8 45.4 25.5 31.2 34.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 38.0 49.3 51.8 94.5 47.9 46.6 32.0 50.6 59.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 46.4 36.4 49.3 93.1 46.8 45.5 24.7 39.2 53.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 27.7 32.8 45.2 84.0 42.0 39.3 31.1 35.5 41.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 36.7 24.9 44.5 91.6 45.9 44.7 19.8 30.6 46.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 21.6 34.4 45.6 89.0 46.9 43.7 22.8 35.1 44.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 49.9 64.3 58.5 93.7 47.9 46.9 52.3 65.1 73.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 36.0 29.4 37.7 90.0 48.7 45.2 24.3 29.7 38.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------