***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.7 8.5 75.9 45.6 40.3 2.9 5.6 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.7 6.6 65.7 42.3 37.2 2.1 5.7 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.9 9.1 81.6 50.1 42.5 2.0 7.8 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 10.8 11.5 96.9 58.6 44.1 4.1 6.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.1 11.2 11.8 99.9 58.8 45.5 2.6 6.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.4 11.3 13.8 112.9 64.9 49.9 2.7 4.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.9 2.4 6.3 63.1 42.7 36.1 1.7 3.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.8 20.3 13.4 103.8 59.9 48.0 8.6 13.8 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.0 11.0 12.4 100.1 58.4 46.6 1.5 4.2 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.3 13.5 103.1 60.1 47.9 2.3 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.0 7.1 12.1 105.3 61.4 47.5 1.8 4.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.9 7.2 12.3 106.5 60.1 48.2 2.3 3.8 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.2 13.2 107.5 62.5 48.7 2.5 6.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.1 13.2 12.0 82.7 51.1 44.0 4.5 12.1 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.1 8.7 11.1 97.9 60.6 43.8 1.6 5.0 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.7 12.5 108.6 62.4 48.4 4.2 6.1 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.5 1.8 5.9 60.5 43.7 35.9 0.9 3.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.8 9.7 14.1 100.1 57.9 48.7 2.0 6.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.2 4.7 7.3 70.1 44.0 38.7 2.1 6.4 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.2 8.9 16.3 95.6 55.9 47.4 2.7 7.9 10.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.6 6.8 11.0 94.3 57.4 45.0 1.9 3.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.9 3.7 6.3 61.2 41.4 35.6 1.4 6.4 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.5 8.6 76.2 48.3 41.7 2.7 7.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.1 12.2 92.3 55.7 46.5 2.6 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.7 10.5 84.7 50.4 42.1 0.7 5.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.9 12.6 99.6 56.5 46.7 1.3 4.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.2 9.0 76.5 46.1 40.0 1.4 4.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.6 6.8 11.8 105.0 62.6 46.2 1.8 3.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.7 14.2 14.7 97.3 56.3 48.4 4.6 12.0 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.3 4.4 7.1 68.5 44.0 38.3 2.4 4.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------