***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.8 8.0 67.6 44.4 37.6 1.6 6.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.0 4.4 6.7 68.2 46.1 36.2 3.0 5.0 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.0 8.5 69.5 45.5 37.6 3.8 5.3 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.0 7.4 10.2 73.4 48.5 40.1 2.8 7.4 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.3 5.2 10.0 72.7 46.4 39.4 4.3 6.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.7 6.5 10.3 80.0 50.4 41.2 3.7 6.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.4 4.8 6.4 67.1 46.3 35.8 2.1 5.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 6.2 11.6 11.2 79.6 50.8 41.6 7.9 11.4 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.4 5.7 11.0 76.3 46.6 40.7 3.3 6.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.5 7.3 11.5 78.3 47.6 41.0 4.7 7.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.1 5.3 9.8 76.7 47.9 40.7 2.8 5.5 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.2 8.1 9.8 78.7 51.9 41.3 4.4 7.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.0 6.4 10.0 77.4 47.0 40.8 3.9 7.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.0 9.1 11.1 73.3 45.0 38.3 5.2 10.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.2 6.3 9.6 73.7 50.7 40.3 0.2 5.9 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.3 6.1 9.7 77.6 47.0 41.0 4.1 6.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 3.4 6.4 6.1 66.7 45.9 35.1 5.3 7.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.8 6.7 12.2 79.7 48.8 41.4 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.3 4.9 7.1 68.7 45.4 36.6 3.1 5.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.5 8.2 13.8 77.4 47.7 41.1 4.6 8.6 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.1 9.7 71.6 45.6 38.9 3.4 5.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.5 8.1 6.6 67.5 44.9 36.0 4.0 9.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.6 4.3 8.0 69.3 44.8 36.8 2.9 5.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.1 6.8 11.0 76.6 48.0 40.2 5.4 7.6 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.3 9.5 69.3 44.2 38.6 1.8 4.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.1 7.2 9.3 71.5 45.7 38.1 3.1 7.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.3 2.8 8.4 67.7 43.9 37.9 1.7 5.3 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.5 6.0 10.0 76.9 50.0 40.8 1.9 6.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.7 10.8 12.9 80.6 48.1 41.9 6.3 11.8 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.7 5.7 7.0 67.3 46.0 36.2 4.1 6.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------