***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 2.3 3.4 4.2 38.2 28.8 25.7 3.5 6.6 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 0.9 0.9 3.7 37.2 29.4 25.7 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.3 1.7 4.6 42.6 30.8 27.1 2.1 5.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 2.9 4.2 4.8 37.8 31.8 22.6 4.2 5.8 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.9 2.3 4.7 38.3 26.8 22.7 3.7 6.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 1.3 2.3 5.0 43.8 29.6 23.7 2.5 5.6 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 1.0 0.7 3.3 33.4 28.5 23.4 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 4.2 4.6 5.1 38.7 26.1 22.2 6.5 10.2 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 1.3 2.3 5.3 43.0 29.4 25.4 2.4 4.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 1.8 2.6 5.2 41.0 27.8 23.8 3.8 5.9 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 1.5 2.2 5.0 41.5 29.0 24.0 2.6 4.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 1.3 2.5 4.7 39.2 26.8 22.7 3.0 5.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 2.8 2.7 5.0 42.1 28.4 25.1 4.7 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 2.2 4.5 6.1 45.8 32.0 26.8 4.8 6.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 0.8 1.5 4.8 39.4 39.0 26.1 1.1 3.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 1.9 2.7 4.9 42.1 29.8 24.6 3.2 5.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 1.0 1.1 3.5 37.1 29.7 23.8 1.2 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 2.4 2.8 6.0 45.4 29.9 25.7 3.4 7.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 1.1 1.3 4.0 38.8 28.9 25.9 1.5 4.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 3.1 3.9 7.1 42.5 29.5 23.7 5.0 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 1.5 1.8 5.1 43.1 31.2 26.2 2.0 4.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 1.1 1.1 3.8 38.4 29.3 24.7 1.4 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 1.5 2.2 4.3 40.4 29.9 26.0 2.6 5.1 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 3.2 5.0 6.0 47.1 32.8 27.2 5.0 6.2 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 1.0 1.7 4.7 37.0 27.7 22.7 2.7 4.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 1.5 2.6 4.4 35.5 26.7 20.8 4.7 9.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 1.9 2.3 4.5 37.9 28.7 24.3 3.1 5.1 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 0.8 1.8 4.6 37.9 34.5 23.5 1.8 3.4 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 4.1 7.1 6.4 45.2 29.8 25.1 7.7 15.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 1.4 1.1 3.8 37.7 30.6 26.5 1.4 5.2 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------