***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 18.4 20.8 21.4 176.3 77.6 77.0 0.4 4.4 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 16.3 19.0 19.3 180.7 79.8 77.9 1.4 2.8 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 22.5 28.6 20.2 164.9 77.5 74.5 1.2 4.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 12.0 17.5 22.9 147.0 71.5 68.3 5.1 10.8 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 17.7 23.3 23.3 160.5 76.6 72.8 2.9 5.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 7.6 8.5 20.2 138.5 71.3 66.6 3.1 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 12.2 14.3 18.9 186.6 80.4 78.5 0.8 3.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 23.9 27.1 23.4 138.4 72.1 66.6 8.2 15.3 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 15.1 14.1 21.7 156.4 73.9 71.1 2.5 8.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 17.2 19.6 24.7 153.6 76.3 70.7 4.8 7.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.1 12.6 22.4 149.2 74.3 69.8 2.2 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 9.1 18.2 21.0 137.1 69.8 65.9 2.7 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 18.6 21.1 23.4 144.7 74.3 69.5 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 20.5 24.6 23.7 153.9 77.1 71.4 5.6 11.3 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 7.2 9.5 16.1 109.1 61.2 60.3 1.7 6.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 12.7 14.2 22.0 146.4 73.4 69.2 1.7 5.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 10.1 12.2 17.6 174.6 78.9 76.1 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 13.9 16.8 24.8 152.6 76.3 70.4 5.1 9.1 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 17.9 21.1 19.8 177.2 79.9 77.3 1.6 3.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.2 11.0 24.9 125.3 68.7 63.4 4.3 8.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 19.7 25.0 20.9 156.2 73.4 71.4 1.2 7.0 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 14.9 17.5 18.2 166.9 79.2 75.3 4.2 6.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 15.4 17.9 20.7 171.5 79.6 75.8 1.8 5.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 14.2 18.3 22.6 155.7 76.4 71.4 4.1 7.0 16.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 23.4 30.6 24.7 173.9 79.4 76.6 1.3 5.2 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 5.6 8.8 18.9 119.6 64.8 60.8 2.1 4.1 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 19.3 24.8 22.6 180.5 79.8 78.0 0.9 4.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 7.1 14.2 19.2 128.7 66.6 63.9 1.8 5.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 18.3 23.7 24.6 141.9 73.2 67.6 9.7 16.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 17.0 20.3 19.8 179.8 79.4 78.1 1.6 3.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------