***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9.9 10.6 9.4 2.2 71.9 69.4 6.0 8.0 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 9.8 11.1 9.6 2.4 75.2 71.8 5.1 6.8 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.5 9.8 2.2 71.0 69.1 6.1 7.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 2.9 3.6 6.7 2.3 71.6 69.1 -0.6 0.8 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 10.2 10.4 7.7 1.8 67.7 65.2 6.2 7.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.2 7.7 5.2 0.8 57.4 56.3 5.6 6.5 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 9.0 10.5 9.4 2.3 75.0 71.3 4.9 6.3 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.3 0.1 6.2 1.3 64.9 62.0 -2.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 10.2 10.5 8.5 1.8 68.8 65.7 6.5 8.0 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 10.1 10.1 7.1 1.5 65.6 62.7 6.3 7.8 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 10.2 10.3 7.7 1.6 66.2 63.7 6.7 7.8 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 9.7 9.4 7.0 1.4 65.6 62.7 6.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.7 6.5 1.1 59.9 59.2 6.8 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 10.7 11.5 9.0 2.3 71.8 69.1 6.2 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 9.7 11.3 8.3 2.6 76.1 71.7 4.5 6.9 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.8 7.0 1.4 63.8 61.9 7.1 8.3 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.1 10.7 9.4 2.4 76.2 72.1 4.6 6.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 9.6 9.9 6.9 1.7 67.9 64.3 5.7 7.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 9.7 10.8 9.8 2.4 74.5 71.2 5.0 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 5.7 5.5 4.6 1.5 67.6 64.1 2.1 3.1 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.6 9.2 2.0 69.6 66.9 6.2 7.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 9.8 11.6 9.7 2.5 77.4 72.7 5.4 6.6 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 10.0 11.1 9.9 2.3 72.7 69.9 6.0 7.1 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 10.1 10.5 8.7 2.0 70.2 66.9 6.4 7.8 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 9.3 10.0 7.9 2.1 71.2 68.4 5.2 6.7 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.6 5.8 0.9 58.5 58.2 6.3 7.7 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 9.4 9.8 8.7 2.0 71.8 68.7 6.1 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 10.5 11.6 7.3 2.2 71.7 68.3 5.0 7.5 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 5.5 6.0 6.2 1.6 67.2 64.4 1.9 3.2 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 9.3 10.6 9.5 2.4 74.2 71.1 5.3 6.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------