***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.0 8.9 0.0 45.9 48.4 7.4 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.0 9.1 0.2 47.0 50.0 7.6 10.5 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.0 9.2 -0.1 44.5 47.9 8.6 11.5 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 3.9 2.2 6.1 -0.3 46.7 47.1 0.1 3.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.6 7.0 -0.6 43.7 45.1 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.0 9.0 5.0 -0.8 40.6 42.7 7.4 10.1 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.1 9.1 0.2 47.7 50.1 7.2 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.2 0.2 6.0 -0.6 43.8 44.6 -0.6 0.6 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 8.0 10.7 7.6 -0.6 43.3 45.1 9.1 12.1 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.9 11.1 6.6 -0.7 43.5 44.4 8.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 8.0 10.4 6.9 -0.7 42.4 44.2 8.6 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.3 10.2 6.7 -0.6 42.6 44.3 8.3 10.8 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 8.3 10.5 5.8 -0.8 41.4 43.4 8.9 11.4 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.5 8.2 -0.2 45.3 47.8 9.4 12.3 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.0 7.0 0.1 48.0 49.3 5.8 10.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 8.4 11.3 6.4 -0.7 42.9 44.0 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.4 9.5 9.1 0.3 49.3 50.7 7.0 9.6 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.2 11.0 6.6 -0.5 44.4 45.2 9.0 11.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.9 9.2 0.2 45.5 49.6 7.7 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.7 4.3 -0.3 47.6 46.5 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.3 10.7 8.4 -0.4 44.3 46.1 9.0 11.9 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.6 10.8 9.2 0.3 48.5 50.7 7.1 10.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.4 11.1 9.4 0.0 44.4 48.8 9.1 11.8 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.8 11.9 7.9 -0.3 44.1 46.5 9.1 12.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.3 7.1 -0.2 45.7 47.5 7.4 10.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.9 10.4 5.8 -0.5 43.0 44.5 9.4 10.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.4 8.2 0.0 46.3 48.2 7.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.1 9.6 6.3 -0.3 46.6 47.0 6.2 10.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.9 5.8 -0.4 45.9 45.8 4.3 6.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.3 9.8 9.0 0.2 46.3 49.7 7.7 10.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------