***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 12.3 11.9 9.2 1.7 61.6 61.7 6.0 8.8 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 11.0 10.5 9.4 1.8 62.8 62.7 4.4 7.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 12.2 10.8 9.6 1.6 60.8 60.6 6.2 7.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.3 4.4 6.9 1.8 63.0 61.4 -0.1 1.6 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.5 7.7 1.4 59.9 59.1 6.3 8.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.2 9.4 5.7 0.9 56.6 55.8 5.9 7.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 11.0 10.0 9.3 1.8 63.5 62.8 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.1 1.6 6.5 1.2 59.8 58.0 -2.1 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.9 8.2 1.4 59.9 58.6 7.0 9.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.8 7.1 1.2 59.4 57.8 6.6 9.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.9 7.5 1.2 59.2 57.9 6.3 9.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.8 7.2 1.2 58.5 57.5 6.7 8.3 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.5 6.4 1.0 56.6 56.2 7.1 9.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 9.8 12.3 8.4 1.4 59.7 59.1 6.2 8.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.9 7.9 2.0 65.0 62.9 4.5 7.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.4 7.0 1.2 58.1 57.3 7.5 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.1 9.3 1.8 63.5 62.7 4.2 6.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.6 6.9 1.3 60.0 58.0 7.1 9.0 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 11.0 10.9 9.5 1.8 61.7 62.0 4.6 6.6 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.8 4.8 1.4 62.3 59.5 2.4 4.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.6 8.9 1.5 60.3 59.5 6.8 8.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 11.3 10.7 9.4 1.7 62.5 62.3 4.6 7.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 8.8 11.1 9.6 1.6 59.8 60.6 5.3 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.2 8.2 1.4 60.1 58.7 6.6 9.8 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.9 10.2 7.7 1.7 62.2 61.4 5.7 7.5 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.5 6.5 1.2 60.2 58.9 6.7 9.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.9 9.9 8.6 1.7 62.3 61.7 6.3 7.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.9 7.2 1.8 62.7 60.9 5.8 8.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.3 6.2 1.3 60.7 58.3 2.9 5.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 11.3 9.9 9.3 1.8 62.1 62.4 4.4 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------