***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 10.0 12.1 10.3 3.1 79.0 71.6 5.2 6.3 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 9.6 11.5 10.4 3.3 80.4 73.1 3.3 5.4 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 9.9 11.4 10.7 3.0 76.6 70.2 4.1 6.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 3.6 5.0 8.0 3.6 81.0 72.5 -1.6 0.5 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 10.4 11.5 8.9 2.8 75.9 68.4 4.5 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.9 6.2 1.5 63.9 59.6 3.2 5.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 9.1 10.9 10.2 3.2 80.6 73.1 2.6 4.8 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 0.8 1.5 7.4 2.4 74.1 65.4 -3.3 -1.7 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 10.5 11.9 9.8 2.8 76.8 68.2 4.7 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 10.3 11.0 8.2 2.4 73.1 65.3 4.9 6.8 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 10.7 11.7 8.9 2.5 73.7 66.3 5.0 6.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 10.5 11.9 8.2 2.4 75.1 66.0 4.5 6.2 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.7 7.7 1.8 66.0 62.4 5.0 6.6 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 10.6 12.0 10.3 3.2 77.0 70.3 4.1 6.8 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 9.8 11.7 9.8 3.9 85.2 74.7 3.8 5.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 11.2 12.0 8.1 2.3 71.3 65.3 5.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 9.0 10.4 10.2 3.4 81.0 74.4 2.6 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 9.9 11.1 8.2 2.7 76.1 67.0 3.6 6.4 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 9.5 11.0 10.6 3.3 79.6 72.3 3.0 6.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 6.3 7.3 6.0 2.6 76.8 66.8 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 10.1 11.9 10.4 2.9 76.8 68.9 4.8 6.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 10.0 11.5 10.6 3.4 81.8 74.5 2.9 5.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 9.8 11.6 10.7 3.1 77.9 70.7 3.3 5.9 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 10.3 11.8 9.9 2.9 76.5 68.6 4.4 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 8.7 10.5 9.1 3.1 78.6 71.0 4.3 4.9 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 9.9 10.6 6.7 1.7 67.3 62.5 5.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 9.4 11.6 9.7 3.0 79.2 71.3 4.1 5.6 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 10.1 12.5 8.6 3.5 80.4 71.5 4.2 5.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 6.7 7.9 7.5 2.8 76.7 67.5 0.4 3.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 9.3 11.2 10.4 3.2 79.3 72.4 3.1 5.1 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------