***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 10.7 11.5 9.0 4.0 80.5 80.5 2.2 3.3 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 9.7 11.0 9.4 4.4 82.4 81.4 2.3 3.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 11.2 12.4 9.7 4.4 82.4 81.7 2.7 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 4.8 5.5 5.8 3.9 80.2 79.7 -2.8 -0.9 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 9.9 11.4 7.1 3.4 80.0 78.0 3.2 4.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 5.3 8.1 3.8 1.4 65.4 63.0 2.7 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 9.3 9.9 9.0 4.0 80.2 79.5 2.4 3.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 0.4 0.7 4.9 2.3 75.1 71.4 -3.5 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 10.7 12.6 8.6 3.8 81.6 80.3 3.3 4.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 9.4 10.7 6.4 3.0 77.7 75.4 3.2 5.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 10.1 11.1 7.5 3.3 78.9 77.0 3.6 5.2 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.2 10.2 6.0 2.6 76.2 73.3 3.3 5.1 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 8.9 10.3 6.3 2.2 72.7 68.9 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.0 9.3 4.6 83.2 82.8 3.4 4.7 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 8.0 10.8 8.5 4.4 83.5 83.0 2.5 5.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 10.1 11.9 6.4 2.8 76.3 73.2 4.0 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 8.6 9.7 8.9 4.1 81.1 80.5 2.2 3.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 9.2 10.2 5.9 3.1 78.4 76.1 3.0 4.9 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 10.2 11.3 9.6 4.6 83.1 82.2 2.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 4.6 5.2 3.5 2.4 74.7 71.6 0.5 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 10.6 12.4 9.3 3.9 81.7 80.5 3.3 4.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 9.8 11.0 9.5 4.5 83.1 82.7 2.8 4.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 10.0 11.7 9.8 4.6 83.4 82.6 3.0 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 11.0 12.2 8.6 4.0 81.6 80.5 3.5 4.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 9.6 11.0 7.9 3.7 80.6 79.4 2.7 4.0 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 6.2 7.2 4.1 1.1 62.2 60.6 3.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 10.8 11.4 8.3 3.5 79.0 78.6 2.8 4.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 8.7 10.2 6.9 3.9 80.8 79.9 3.4 5.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 5.6 6.4 5.1 2.8 76.9 74.7 -0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 9.6 10.7 9.4 4.3 81.9 81.3 2.4 3.5 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------