***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 -0.6 -1.1 -0.1 0.6 56.1 55.5 -2.8 -1.2 0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 -1.4 -1.7 0.2 1.1 62.0 60.3 -3.7 -2.1 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 58.5 58.5 -1.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -4.1 -4.5 -1.7 1.5 65.1 64.5 -7.3 -6.3 -4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.1 -1.7 0.7 55.5 57.3 -3.7 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -2.5 -3.3 -5.1 -0.5 39.9 45.9 -4.5 -3.0 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -1.5 0.1 1.0 59.7 59.2 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -7.6 -8.6 -4.6 -0.1 47.3 50.2 -10.1 -8.5 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -1.0 -1.1 -1.7 0.7 54.9 56.8 -2.6 -1.6 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 -1.0 -1.1 -3.6 0.4 52.2 53.9 -3.0 -1.4 -0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -1.4 -1.9 -2.7 0.3 50.7 53.4 -3.2 -1.9 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -3.0 -3.7 0.0 45.9 50.4 -4.3 -2.8 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -2.0 -4.1 -0.5 40.9 46.7 -3.3 -1.7 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 -0.8 -1.1 -1.7 1.0 58.6 60.1 -2.8 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 1.5 66.7 63.9 -2.3 -1.1 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 -0.5 -1.2 -3.3 0.1 46.3 51.3 -2.7 -1.1 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 -0.3 -1.2 0.4 1.5 65.6 63.5 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -3.1 -3.5 -3.9 0.4 53.7 55.6 -4.9 -3.7 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 -0.3 -1.4 0.1 1.1 61.8 60.5 -3.3 -2.2 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -6.4 -8.0 -5.7 -0.4 43.9 48.5 -8.6 -7.2 -5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -1.3 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 55.1 56.9 -3.2 -1.9 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 -0.5 -0.9 0.4 1.5 65.3 64.0 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -1.7 -1.6 -0.1 1.1 60.0 60.6 -3.9 -2.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -1.2 -1.8 0.8 58.6 58.8 -3.5 -1.8 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 0.8 57.6 57.3 -3.3 -1.6 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -1.2 -2.7 -4.5 -0.6 39.0 45.1 -3.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -1.5 -0.5 0.6 56.0 55.1 -3.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -1.7 -1.6 1.3 61.6 61.7 -4.1 -2.2 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -3.6 -4.7 -5.0 -0.1 47.7 51.1 -6.9 -4.5 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -1.7 0.1 0.9 59.0 59.0 -3.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------