***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 1.4 1.4 0.9 3.2 73.9 74.3 -3.9 -2.9 -0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 0.6 1.4 1.5 4.2 81.0 80.9 -4.5 -3.2 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 2.9 2.8 1.3 3.6 76.9 76.9 -2.9 -1.4 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 -2.4 -2.7 -1.4 3.3 71.8 72.3 -9.3 -6.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 -1.1 -0.8 -0.9 2.8 69.9 68.9 -4.1 -2.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 94 6 100 -3.0 -3.4 -5.2 0.5 48.0 49.5 -5.4 -3.1 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 0.8 1.3 1.1 3.9 78.8 78.7 -3.9 -2.8 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -8.0 -7.4 -3.9 1.8 61.9 61.0 -10.1 -8.4 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 -0.4 0.3 -0.7 2.9 69.9 70.1 -4.8 -2.9 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 -0.3 -0.1 -2.4 2.7 69.5 68.7 -4.2 -2.6 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 -0.7 -0.4 -1.4 2.6 69.4 67.5 -4.1 -2.8 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 49 51 100 -2.6 -2.2 -2.6 2.2 63.7 63.7 -5.5 -3.9 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 -1.5 -0.9 -2.2 2.3 68.0 65.6 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 0.9 1.2 0.0 4.1 79.7 79.3 -3.6 -2.3 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 0.6 0.7 0.5 3.7 77.5 77.5 -3.6 -2.0 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 2.4 67.4 65.5 -3.5 -2.2 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 0.3 1.4 1.5 4.3 83.0 82.6 -4.2 -2.4 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 -2.3 -2.2 -2.6 3.1 72.6 71.6 -5.4 -4.5 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 0.7 1.2 1.4 4.0 80.2 80.1 -4.6 -3.5 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -5.6 -5.4 -4.2 2.5 70.0 68.8 -9.4 -7.6 -6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.3 74.1 73.9 -4.5 -2.9 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.0 0.5 1.8 4.4 83.5 83.4 -4.1 -3.1 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 -0.3 -0.1 0.8 3.6 77.3 77.6 -4.6 -3.7 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 -0.3 0.1 -0.5 3.5 75.2 74.9 -4.7 -3.4 -0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 -0.3 0.1 0.4 3.2 73.0 73.0 -4.0 -3.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 98 2 100 -2.3 -2.4 -4.2 0.6 50.4 50.1 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 1.3 0.8 0.6 3.2 73.6 73.4 -4.3 -2.6 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 3.6 75.1 75.1 -5.4 -3.5 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 47 53 100 -3.5 -2.8 -4.2 2.3 66.6 65.5 -7.1 -5.8 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 1.0 1.3 1.2 3.7 78.3 78.0 -4.5 -3.1 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------