***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 39.1 100.8 58.4 52.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 35.2 33.3 40.3 104.3 56.2 54.0 22.6 30.0 38.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 45.4 43.1 40.2 99.5 54.9 51.0 28.9 38.1 47.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 43.9 36.6 41.5 91.9 50.0 46.4 28.5 36.6 60.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 43.4 36.3 42.2 92.8 47.4 45.4 31.9 36.6 45.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 22.2 27.8 44.5 91.9 42.9 43.2 23.5 32.5 45.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 31.4 27.2 39.4 103.0 55.3 53.3 19.4 25.5 32.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 69.1 57.8 45.9 92.9 45.7 45.4 55.5 62.2 76.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 25.8 31.6 42.4 92.7 48.8 45.0 26.2 33.0 41.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 46.0 40.7 46.2 93.1 46.7 45.2 29.4 41.9 51.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 37.0 30.9 40.4 93.1 46.4 44.5 25.6 33.0 42.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 41.3 37.2 39.3 90.6 43.7 43.4 33.6 39.3 42.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 29.4 39.0 42.7 93.3 45.7 44.8 30.7 40.1 47.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 57.1 54.2 49.0 96.9 51.9 48.8 40.6 51.5 67.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 44.1 33.0 37.8 87.9 46.8 44.8 16.5 36.4 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 25.9 34.2 40.4 92.9 44.2 44.1 25.8 36.4 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 30.2 26.9 39.5 104.7 56.5 53.8 19.9 25.2 40.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 44.4 39.7 52.3 94.7 48.7 47.1 29.4 40.8 45.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 39.6 37.2 40.9 104.0 56.4 53.6 24.7 35.8 42.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 46.1 43.9 64.1 100.9 56.1 52.6 29.8 40.4 52.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 44.2 39.5 40.2 95.1 50.8 48.0 25.0 38.5 48.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 34.1 32.4 41.7 106.2 56.2 54.6 22.9 31.4 42.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 33.8 32.5 42.1 101.5 55.7 51.7 25.5 31.2 34.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 54.3 49.9 46.9 95.2 48.8 47.4 32.0 50.6 59.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 46.1 43.0 44.3 97.5 55.3 50.1 24.7 39.2 53.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 28.3 34.7 42.4 93.0 47.3 47.8 31.1 35.5 41.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 36.4 37.0 42.9 100.4 58.0 52.2 19.8 30.6 46.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 24.5 34.2 39.4 90.7 46.3 44.8 22.8 35.1 44.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 73.7 65.8 57.3 97.3 52.1 49.2 52.3 65.1 73.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 36.3 31.6 40.1 103.3 57.5 53.6 24.3 29.7 38.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------