***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.3 104.8 65.2 49.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.4 8.7 89.8 59.7 46.3 2.1 5.7 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.5 12.9 8.9 97.4 59.4 47.5 2.0 7.8 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.7 12.6 9.8 100.1 62.8 47.5 4.1 6.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.8 12.6 10.0 103.9 64.4 47.7 2.6 6.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.0 10.0 91.5 55.4 45.0 2.7 4.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.2 8.5 89.0 56.0 45.9 1.7 3.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.6 19.8 11.2 102.5 58.5 46.6 8.6 13.8 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 1.7 12.5 10.2 106.4 64.4 47.9 1.5 4.2 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 10.5 11.1 103.9 61.7 47.4 2.3 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.7 9.6 104.0 60.1 47.4 1.8 4.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.5 9.5 100.6 55.8 45.7 2.3 3.8 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.4 9.5 95.4 53.7 45.0 2.5 6.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.9 16.0 11.2 95.2 57.5 46.6 4.5 12.1 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 11.8 9.1 98.0 66.6 47.8 1.6 5.0 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.9 9.1 97.9 57.9 46.7 4.2 6.1 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.4 5.0 8.3 84.9 54.3 44.5 0.9 3.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 9.7 12.3 99.7 56.6 47.2 2.0 6.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.0 8.7 91.3 61.2 46.3 2.1 6.4 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.5 9.1 14.7 99.2 56.8 47.2 2.7 7.9 10.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 1.3 11.7 9.4 104.0 61.9 47.1 1.9 3.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.0 8.4 85.3 58.2 43.8 1.4 6.4 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.5 9.1 94.4 59.4 46.6 2.7 7.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.3 10.8 97.8 58.0 46.8 2.6 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.6 10.6 103.4 62.8 48.5 0.7 5.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.0 10.3 100.1 58.7 46.3 1.3 4.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.1 7.5 10.3 103.1 63.8 49.4 1.4 4.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.6 6.9 9.1 97.9 63.8 47.7 1.8 3.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.1 13.8 13.3 97.8 55.4 47.0 4.6 12.0 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.3 7.9 8.7 92.6 60.4 47.3 2.4 4.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------