***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.1 82.0 58.2 42.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.3 5.5 8.3 86.8 52.9 42.1 3.0 5.0 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.7 9.0 88.2 57.9 43.7 3.8 5.3 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.8 10.0 10.9 90.5 54.4 43.7 2.8 7.4 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.2 7.8 11.0 90.9 56.1 43.7 4.3 6.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.8 9.0 13.1 102.2 61.4 47.9 3.7 6.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.9 8.0 82.5 48.2 41.1 2.1 5.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.1 17.6 12.1 95.5 59.7 47.4 7.9 11.4 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.9 10.9 88.9 57.1 42.7 3.3 6.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.8 13.1 12.3 93.9 59.7 45.8 4.7 7.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.5 8.6 10.9 97.1 58.3 46.0 2.8 5.5 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.7 10.5 94.9 60.4 46.7 4.4 7.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.9 13.5 12.0 101.5 62.5 47.9 3.9 7.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.5 11.6 11.4 88.1 55.2 44.1 5.2 10.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.0 13.2 10.3 92.4 57.0 44.1 0.2 5.9 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.2 11.3 100.1 61.2 46.0 4.1 6.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.5 8.3 90.0 52.7 43.3 5.3 7.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.8 10.9 13.4 92.6 60.2 46.7 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.5 6.7 8.6 88.4 54.2 42.8 3.1 5.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 10.7 15.9 97.5 60.3 49.6 4.6 8.6 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.5 9.0 9.6 87.3 57.6 42.4 3.4 5.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.9 9.7 8.7 91.9 53.8 44.2 4.0 9.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.8 5.5 9.1 88.3 53.7 43.3 2.9 5.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.8 8.5 11.4 89.0 57.3 44.7 5.4 7.6 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.5 9.9 83.4 52.1 42.1 1.8 4.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.2 11.3 98.6 62.1 49.5 3.1 7.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.2 9.1 82.4 53.1 42.8 1.7 5.3 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.4 9.9 11.1 96.2 58.8 44.8 1.9 6.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.0 15.3 14.4 94.8 61.9 48.2 6.3 11.8 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.9 6.7 8.3 85.1 53.2 42.1 4.1 6.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------