***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.0 90.1 52.6 45.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.1 8.9 103.3 60.2 47.9 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.5 6.4 8.4 87.7 53.3 44.6 2.1 5.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.1 9.0 82.3 51.1 43.1 4.2 5.8 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.3 8.9 77.8 48.4 40.4 3.7 6.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.4 4.8 10.7 79.8 46.9 39.6 2.5 5.6 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.0 5.3 8.9 103.8 61.8 47.9 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.7 9.3 9.7 73.3 43.4 36.3 6.5 10.2 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.1 3.9 8.8 74.3 46.5 38.7 2.4 4.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.7 5.0 9.8 74.2 44.1 37.4 3.8 5.9 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.4 8.6 75.0 46.2 37.6 2.6 4.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.3 4.9 8.4 71.6 42.1 35.8 3.0 5.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.2 8.2 9.2 75.1 44.3 38.4 4.7 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 2.8 6.1 10.2 80.2 47.0 39.9 4.8 6.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.9 8.4 83.5 53.6 44.1 1.1 3.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.6 4.7 8.6 75.3 43.6 37.5 3.2 5.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.8 6.4 8.2 99.5 60.0 47.5 1.2 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.4 4.2 11.3 76.9 38.7 38.4 3.4 7.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.7 8.9 99.9 60.0 47.3 1.5 4.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 7.7 13.8 82.3 46.1 39.6 5.0 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.0 8.0 77.2 49.9 40.0 2.0 4.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.9 8.7 100.9 58.1 48.7 1.4 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.5 6.6 9.0 92.4 59.0 45.4 2.6 5.1 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.8 5.8 9.9 78.2 43.4 39.8 5.0 6.2 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.8 7.4 9.4 89.5 54.9 44.9 2.7 4.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.7 8.5 8.4 68.9 44.6 35.5 4.7 9.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.5 9.2 93.8 54.8 46.3 3.1 5.1 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.5 3.4 8.7 81.1 50.1 41.7 1.8 3.4 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.4 11.3 12.2 78.7 42.0 38.5 7.7 15.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.8 8.8 100.8 58.9 47.5 1.4 5.2 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------