***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 13.7 122.8 67.6 64.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 11.6 10.8 14.5 133.6 69.5 67.3 1.4 2.8 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 18.1 16.2 13.9 121.3 68.2 63.9 1.2 4.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.9 15.2 11.9 95.3 60.6 55.8 5.1 10.8 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.8 14.3 12.3 100.2 60.6 55.5 2.9 5.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.3 10.7 94.8 55.4 51.6 3.1 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 9.2 9.4 14.1 133.6 68.2 66.8 0.8 3.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.6 22.1 12.8 102.8 60.2 54.9 8.2 15.3 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.5 9.0 12.6 103.4 60.0 55.4 2.5 8.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.7 12.0 13.0 102.7 60.0 55.0 4.8 7.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.9 11.4 98.4 58.8 54.4 2.2 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.9 10.9 97.5 59.7 53.5 2.7 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.3 9.3 12.0 102.1 60.3 53.9 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 13.3 18.9 16.2 122.9 67.3 61.9 5.6 11.3 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.4 9.7 10.0 79.9 61.9 54.7 1.7 6.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.8 9.3 11.4 99.4 60.8 54.1 1.7 5.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 9.2 9.7 14.7 139.8 70.3 68.7 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 10.4 11.9 15.3 111.6 64.0 58.4 5.1 9.1 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 12.8 17.4 14.7 132.0 69.7 66.7 1.6 3.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.3 10.6 19.7 126.0 67.9 61.8 4.3 8.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 10.1 11.6 13.1 111.2 64.7 60.1 1.2 7.0 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 12.8 14.8 15.9 141.0 73.1 69.0 4.2 6.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.4 14.3 14.8 126.7 68.9 64.2 1.8 5.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 8.7 16.3 14.9 115.8 66.1 60.5 4.1 7.0 16.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 8.7 20.4 14.4 112.5 66.3 61.7 1.3 5.2 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.5 12.4 106.6 63.3 56.0 2.1 4.1 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 7.2 13.5 14.4 120.2 67.5 63.6 0.9 4.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.4 11.4 10.4 88.4 60.1 54.2 1.8 5.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 18.5 22.5 17.3 119.3 66.9 60.4 9.7 16.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 12.4 8.6 14.3 130.7 69.4 66.5 1.6 3.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------