***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 4.7 96.2 93.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 11.2 13.2 11.5 4.7 95.7 92.9 5.1 6.8 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 11.5 14.8 12.0 4.8 95.9 93.4 6.1 7.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 3.9 8.3 9.3 4.2 94.5 89.5 -0.6 0.8 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 11.5 15.6 10.4 4.7 96.2 92.5 6.2 7.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 10.6 14.3 9.1 4.9 98.0 94.3 5.6 6.5 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 10.8 12.8 11.4 4.6 95.7 93.1 4.9 6.3 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 1.1 4.4 9.3 4.6 96.6 93.0 -2.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 11.7 15.3 11.3 4.9 96.5 93.2 6.5 8.0 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 11.5 15.2 10.2 4.7 96.7 93.1 6.3 7.8 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 11.6 15.6 10.3 4.8 96.7 93.4 6.7 7.8 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 11.0 14.4 9.9 4.6 96.9 93.4 6.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 11.7 15.4 9.6 4.7 98.0 93.8 6.8 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 12.0 15.4 11.4 4.7 97.1 92.8 6.2 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 10.7 12.6 9.3 3.7 88.6 85.6 4.5 6.9 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 12.3 15.9 9.9 4.8 97.8 93.5 7.1 8.3 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 10.7 12.2 11.1 4.5 95.4 92.5 4.6 6.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 10.9 14.8 9.7 4.6 97.0 92.8 5.7 7.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 11.2 13.7 11.8 4.7 96.0 93.0 5.0 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 6.8 9.6 7.2 4.1 96.8 91.9 2.1 3.1 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 11.5 15.0 11.7 4.8 96.0 93.1 6.2 7.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 11.4 13.3 11.4 4.5 95.3 92.1 5.4 6.6 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 11.6 14.4 12.0 4.8 96.6 93.1 6.0 7.1 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 11.3 15.2 11.2 4.8 97.0 93.0 6.4 7.8 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 10.6 13.9 10.2 4.5 95.9 92.3 5.2 6.7 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 10.7 14.5 9.0 4.5 97.8 93.9 6.3 7.7 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 10.9 14.6 10.9 4.6 96.5 93.0 6.1 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 12.0 14.8 9.5 4.1 92.2 88.3 5.0 7.5 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 6.5 10.6 8.7 4.4 97.1 92.4 1.9 3.2 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 10.8 13.4 11.7 4.7 95.7 93.2 5.3 6.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------