***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9999.0 0.0 11.8 2.8 75.2 71.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 13.2 13.4 11.8 2.9 74.5 72.5 7.6 10.5 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 13.3 13.4 12.0 2.7 73.0 70.4 8.6 11.5 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 5.7 6.4 10.0 2.8 73.3 69.8 0.1 3.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 13.1 13.4 10.3 2.6 72.7 68.6 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 12.2 12.7 8.7 2.7 76.2 68.8 7.4 10.1 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 12.8 13.2 11.7 2.9 75.8 72.9 7.2 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 2.6 3.6 8.9 2.4 72.5 66.8 -0.6 0.6 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 13.3 13.6 10.9 2.6 72.6 68.2 9.1 12.1 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.7 9.7 2.4 72.7 67.0 8.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 13.4 14.1 10.0 2.5 73.1 67.9 8.6 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.5 13.4 9.7 2.4 72.7 67.4 8.3 10.8 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.7 9.2 2.5 73.0 67.7 8.9 11.4 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.3 13.7 10.9 2.5 69.8 68.1 9.4 12.3 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 13.1 13.4 10.3 2.9 73.7 70.9 5.8 10.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.1 9.6 2.6 74.7 68.0 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 12.4 12.8 11.5 2.9 74.5 72.3 7.0 9.6 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 13.0 13.4 9.2 2.3 71.1 66.0 9.0 11.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 13.3 12.5 12.0 2.9 73.3 71.7 7.7 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 7.7 7.3 6.8 2.2 71.3 65.2 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 13.3 13.6 11.5 2.6 72.8 68.9 9.0 11.9 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 13.3 13.5 11.7 2.8 73.0 71.4 7.1 10.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 13.7 13.3 12.0 2.8 70.8 70.4 9.1 11.8 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 14.1 13.6 10.8 2.5 70.7 67.8 9.1 12.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 12.9 13.6 10.3 2.8 75.4 70.5 7.4 10.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 13.1 13.2 8.9 2.5 74.6 69.1 9.4 10.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 13.3 13.4 11.1 2.8 75.7 71.5 7.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 13.2 14.3 10.2 2.8 73.6 69.6 6.2 10.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 7.7 8.3 8.2 2.2 70.7 65.4 4.3 6.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 12.9 13.0 11.9 2.9 74.2 72.3 7.7 10.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------