***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 9999.0 0.0 11.2 3.3 78.2 75.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 11.8 13.6 11.3 3.4 82.2 76.5 4.4 7.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 13.1 15.2 11.5 3.4 78.4 74.7 6.2 7.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 6.7 6.8 9.2 3.2 73.4 72.9 -0.1 1.6 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 12.6 13.8 9.8 3.3 74.5 73.1 6.3 8.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.0 12.2 8.2 3.3 75.3 72.5 5.9 7.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 11.9 13.4 11.1 3.4 82.8 76.8 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 2.1 2.8 8.7 3.3 76.6 73.7 -2.1 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 13.4 15.3 10.5 3.3 75.9 73.0 7.0 9.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 13.5 14.8 9.5 3.3 75.9 73.4 6.6 9.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 13.4 14.4 9.5 3.3 74.9 73.3 6.3 9.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 11.9 13.7 9.3 3.3 76.3 73.3 6.7 8.3 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 12.5 13.3 8.8 3.2 73.9 72.3 7.1 9.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 13.8 15.7 10.9 3.5 79.0 74.7 6.2 8.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.2 13.8 9.2 3.1 73.3 72.7 4.5 7.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.9 9.1 3.3 74.0 72.5 7.5 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 10.9 12.4 11.0 3.5 82.9 77.3 4.2 6.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 13.7 15.3 9.1 3.3 77.1 73.4 7.1 9.0 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 12.0 14.2 11.5 3.5 80.7 76.2 4.6 6.6 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 8.0 8.4 6.8 3.0 76.6 73.2 2.4 4.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 13.2 14.7 11.0 3.3 75.6 73.2 6.8 8.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 12.0 13.8 11.3 3.5 80.3 76.7 4.6 7.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 12.7 14.9 11.7 3.5 79.0 75.8 5.3 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 13.6 15.0 10.6 3.4 78.5 74.1 6.6 9.8 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 12.7 14.1 9.6 3.2 77.1 74.2 5.7 7.5 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 11.4 12.1 8.4 3.0 76.0 72.6 6.7 9.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 12.6 14.5 10.4 3.3 80.0 75.1 6.3 7.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 13.1 14.9 9.3 3.2 73.0 72.4 5.8 8.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 8.8 9.8 8.1 3.2 77.1 73.3 2.9 5.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 12.3 13.9 11.4 3.4 81.1 76.1 4.4 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------