***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 0.0 12.5 6.4 96.3 89.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 10.5 13.9 12.1 6.1 95.0 88.6 3.3 5.4 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 11.1 15.2 12.8 6.4 95.4 89.3 4.1 6.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 4.6 7.7 10.6 6.2 94.6 89.6 -1.6 0.5 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 11.7 15.2 11.4 6.6 95.3 89.9 4.5 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 10.5 13.7 10.4 6.8 97.7 90.4 3.2 5.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 10.0 13.6 11.9 6.1 96.2 88.7 2.6 4.8 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 1.4 4.5 10.3 6.4 96.4 89.6 -3.3 -1.7 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 11.6 15.3 12.2 6.8 95.4 89.7 4.7 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 11.4 15.4 11.2 6.6 95.8 89.4 4.9 6.8 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 12.1 15.4 11.3 6.6 96.6 90.3 5.0 6.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 11.7 14.7 11.0 6.5 97.3 90.4 4.5 6.2 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 12.1 14.7 10.7 6.6 97.7 90.8 5.0 6.6 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 11.6 15.3 12.1 6.4 92.3 88.3 4.1 6.8 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 10.8 12.8 10.3 5.7 92.5 88.3 3.8 5.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 12.6 15.4 11.0 6.6 96.8 90.5 5.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 9.6 12.1 11.6 5.9 92.8 87.7 2.6 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 10.6 15.0 10.8 6.5 95.1 88.5 3.6 6.4 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 10.3 14.0 12.4 6.2 94.5 88.8 3.0 6.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 6.8 9.4 8.3 5.9 95.4 88.0 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 11.5 15.2 12.5 6.6 95.5 89.7 4.8 6.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 10.5 13.0 11.9 5.9 91.5 87.7 2.9 5.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 11.0 14.3 12.7 6.3 94.2 88.8 3.3 5.9 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 11.3 15.2 12.1 6.5 94.1 88.7 4.4 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 10.1 13.6 11.0 6.3 96.1 89.7 4.3 4.9 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 11.5 14.0 10.2 6.3 98.4 91.4 5.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 10.9 13.9 11.7 6.3 96.5 89.7 4.1 5.6 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 11.5 14.5 10.8 6.2 93.9 89.2 4.2 5.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 7.4 9.9 9.7 6.3 95.7 88.2 0.4 3.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 10.3 13.4 12.3 6.2 95.5 89.1 3.1 5.1 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------