***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 11.2 6.3 92.1 89.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 9.8 12.1 11.0 6.3 91.4 87.4 2.3 3.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 11.5 13.3 11.8 6.6 92.7 89.8 2.7 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 4.6 5.5 7.3 4.5 79.4 78.9 -2.8 -0.9 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 10.7 13.6 10.0 6.3 92.3 89.5 3.2 4.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 10.7 12.5 9.2 6.7 95.5 93.9 2.7 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 9.5 11.8 10.8 6.2 91.2 87.9 2.4 3.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.5 3.0 9.2 6.2 92.9 90.5 -3.5 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.4 14.6 11.5 6.8 93.8 91.3 3.3 4.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 10.7 13.3 10.4 6.6 93.8 91.1 3.2 5.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.8 10.5 6.7 94.4 91.8 3.6 5.2 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 10.9 13.3 9.8 6.3 93.6 91.8 3.3 5.1 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 11.7 13.7 10.0 6.5 95.8 93.8 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 10.8 13.9 11.5 6.6 92.4 88.9 3.4 4.7 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.2 7.3 3.1 67.5 68.8 2.5 5.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 12.0 14.2 10.0 6.6 94.0 92.6 4.0 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 8.8 10.9 10.4 5.9 87.5 85.7 2.2 3.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 10.1 12.9 9.8 6.4 93.7 90.3 3.0 4.9 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 10.3 12.8 11.3 6.4 92.7 88.4 2.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 5.8 7.8 7.1 5.4 90.0 87.0 0.5 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 11.0 14.1 11.7 6.6 92.8 89.8 3.3 4.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 10.0 11.5 10.6 5.9 87.0 85.3 2.8 4.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 10.1 13.1 11.6 6.5 93.9 89.6 3.0 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 11.3 14.2 11.3 6.6 93.3 90.4 3.5 4.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 10.0 12.2 9.7 5.8 90.1 87.6 2.7 4.0 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 10.7 12.7 8.7 6.0 94.8 93.2 3.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 11.0 12.8 10.6 6.2 91.5 89.5 2.8 4.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 8.5 9.0 7.8 4.3 77.1 77.2 3.4 5.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 6.6 8.6 8.8 6.0 92.6 89.5 -0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 9.8 12.4 11.2 6.4 92.3 88.5 2.4 3.5 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------