***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 2.9 4.0 96.4 93.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 0.2 2.8 2.5 3.8 96.3 93.0 -2.6 -1.2 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 2.6 5.3 2.5 3.8 96.8 93.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 -2.6 -0.1 -0.4 3.2 92.5 89.2 -7.0 -5.1 -3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 -0.4 2.3 0.4 3.7 96.4 93.4 -2.3 -1.8 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 -1.6 0.5 -1.3 3.7 95.3 93.0 -3.0 -2.5 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 0.6 2.8 2.6 4.0 96.3 93.2 -2.2 -1.1 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 -5.7 -3.2 -0.7 3.8 96.8 93.9 -9.1 -8.0 -6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 0.5 3.1 1.2 3.9 96.8 93.9 -1.8 -1.0 -0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 0.4 2.9 0.0 4.0 97.1 94.3 -1.6 -1.2 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 0.0 2.5 0.0 3.6 96.6 93.2 -1.7 -1.1 -0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 -1.2 1.3 -0.2 3.7 96.3 93.5 -3.0 -2.4 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -0.3 2.1 -0.5 3.7 96.4 93.6 -2.1 -1.5 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 1.0 3.2 1.1 3.7 96.5 93.3 -1.6 -0.6 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 1.1 1.7 -0.3 2.7 84.2 82.7 -2.1 -0.9 0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 0.5 3.0 -0.4 3.5 96.2 92.8 -1.4 -0.8 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 0.6 2.8 2.4 3.8 95.8 91.9 -2.0 -1.1 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -2.1 0.4 -0.6 4.1 97.2 94.8 -3.3 -3.1 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 0.4 3.1 2.4 3.7 96.4 92.9 -2.4 -1.3 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 -4.3 -1.0 -2.0 4.2 97.7 94.6 -7.5 -5.9 -5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 0.1 3.2 2.1 3.9 96.5 93.6 -2.0 -1.0 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 0.1 2.4 2.3 3.6 96.0 91.5 -2.3 -1.4 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 -0.6 2.5 2.0 3.5 96.3 92.8 -2.3 -1.4 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 -0.4 2.2 0.9 3.7 96.9 93.9 -2.0 -1.3 -0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 -0.1 2.2 1.1 3.7 96.0 93.3 -2.0 -1.2 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 0.1 1.9 -0.4 3.6 96.6 93.5 -2.1 -1.6 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 0.5 3.4 2.1 4.0 96.4 94.0 -2.1 -0.8 -0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 -1.0 0.7 -0.3 3.0 89.8 87.2 -3.6 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 -2.0 0.8 -1.1 4.0 97.3 94.7 -5.4 -4.6 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 0.8 3.4 2.6 3.9 96.5 93.3 -2.0 -0.9 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------