***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 2.6 2.1 78.4 70.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.3 79.3 73.6 -1.1 0.4 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 4.1 4.8 2.3 2.1 76.8 71.1 1.1 2.8 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -2.0 -0.6 0.0 2.3 80.9 72.9 -5.5 -4.1 -1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 1.4 2.4 0.2 2.2 77.2 71.4 -1.9 -0.3 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 0.4 1.2 -1.6 2.3 76.7 71.7 -2.9 -0.9 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.4 78.5 73.9 -0.8 0.7 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -5.5 -3.6 -1.4 1.9 68.3 67.6 -7.8 -6.1 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 2.6 3.3 0.8 2.1 74.4 70.1 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 2.0 1.5 -0.7 2.0 69.8 68.6 -0.5 0.5 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 2.0 2.2 -0.3 2.0 74.1 70.0 -1.1 0.4 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 0.2 0.3 -0.7 1.8 69.0 67.9 -2.4 -0.8 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 1.3 1.3 -1.0 2.0 69.8 69.0 -1.1 -0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 2.8 3.4 0.7 2.0 76.3 70.3 0.1 1.1 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 2.2 3.2 0.4 2.2 77.5 72.6 -0.7 0.4 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 2.6 3.1 -0.7 2.0 73.7 69.8 -0.5 0.8 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 2.6 3.1 2.6 2.4 77.1 73.7 -0.4 1.1 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 0.0 0.2 -1.2 2.1 68.7 68.8 -2.9 -1.5 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.2 79.1 72.8 -0.8 0.8 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 -2.2 -2.5 -2.9 1.9 61.2 66.1 -7.2 -3.8 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 2.0 2.9 1.7 2.1 77.5 69.8 -0.9 0.3 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.3 76.5 72.7 -1.0 1.0 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 1.9 2.8 2.0 2.1 78.3 71.8 -1.0 0.2 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 1.9 2.7 0.5 2.1 74.9 70.5 -0.9 0.0 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 1.5 2.3 0.9 2.3 78.8 72.1 -0.4 0.4 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 1.5 2.0 -0.7 1.9 73.0 69.4 -1.6 0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 2.5 3.5 1.8 2.2 77.7 71.5 -0.5 0.6 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 0.7 2.0 0.1 2.3 77.7 72.1 -2.2 -1.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 -0.4 -0.5 -1.8 2.1 68.2 68.3 -3.4 -1.8 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 2.6 3.6 2.6 2.3 78.8 73.0 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------