***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 9999.0 0.0 3.6 5.4 92.8 91.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 1.3 2.4 3.0 5.0 92.9 90.0 -3.7 -2.1 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 3.7 4.6 2.9 4.9 93.5 90.5 -1.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 -2.9 -0.5 0.0 4.3 90.6 88.5 -7.3 -6.3 -4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 0.7 2.0 0.9 5.0 94.6 91.1 -3.7 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 -0.8 1.3 -0.9 4.6 91.2 90.9 -4.5 -3.0 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 1.5 2.8 3.2 5.2 93.5 90.3 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 -4.1 -3.3 -0.1 5.2 95.6 92.2 -10.1 -8.5 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 1.6 2.7 1.9 5.4 95.6 91.8 -2.6 -1.6 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 0.8 3.0 0.7 5.5 96.9 92.4 -3.0 -1.4 -0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 0.7 2.4 0.5 4.8 94.8 91.2 -3.2 -1.9 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 0.1 1.9 0.3 4.9 92.9 91.2 -4.3 -2.8 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 0.4 1.9 0.0 4.9 93.6 91.4 -3.3 -1.7 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 1.4 2.9 1.7 5.2 95.2 90.9 -2.8 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 0.5 0.9 0.0 3.8 83.8 84.1 -2.3 -1.1 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 1.7 3.0 0.0 4.6 92.4 90.5 -2.7 -1.1 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 0.8 2.0 3.1 5.1 92.9 89.4 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 -1.4 0.3 0.2 5.7 96.3 92.5 -4.9 -3.7 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 1.0 2.1 2.8 4.8 93.0 89.9 -3.3 -2.2 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 -4.3 -0.3 -1.0 5.8 96.5 92.1 -8.6 -7.2 -5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 1.4 3.0 2.7 5.3 93.8 91.2 -3.2 -1.9 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 0.3 2.4 2.9 4.8 93.5 89.5 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.4 1.8 2.4 4.7 93.3 89.9 -3.9 -2.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 0.2 2.4 1.4 5.1 94.8 91.3 -3.5 -1.8 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.3 1.4 4.9 92.9 90.5 -3.3 -1.6 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 0.4 2.4 0.0 4.5 93.7 91.2 -3.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 1.4 4.0 2.6 5.3 93.6 91.0 -3.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 -0.9 0.4 0.1 4.2 88.4 87.0 -4.1 -2.2 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 -0.7 0.7 -0.3 5.6 96.6 92.4 -6.9 -4.5 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.8 3.0 3.1 5.0 93.2 90.4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------