***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 3.4 6.0 94.2 93.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.6 3.2 2.6 5.5 93.0 91.4 -4.5 -3.2 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 3.0 5.8 2.9 5.7 95.2 94.3 -2.9 -1.4 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 3.8 79.5 80.0 -9.3 -6.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.4 1.2 1.0 5.3 93.0 92.2 -4.1 -2.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.3 1.9 -0.7 5.5 97.0 95.9 -5.4 -3.1 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.9 2.5 2.7 5.7 93.3 91.9 -3.9 -2.8 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 -5.2 -2.2 -0.1 5.8 95.7 94.1 -10.1 -8.4 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.7 4.9 1.7 5.5 97.0 95.1 -4.8 -2.9 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.5 0.6 5.8 96.7 94.9 -4.2 -2.6 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.2 1.3 0.7 5.4 93.6 92.9 -4.1 -2.8 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -1.3 1.2 0.5 5.7 95.7 94.5 -5.5 -3.9 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.6 1.7 0.3 5.6 96.0 94.7 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 1.1 2.7 1.5 5.3 93.8 93.3 -3.6 -2.3 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 0.2 0.1 -1.2 2.5 71.4 69.6 -3.6 -2.0 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 0.6 1.8 0.2 5.2 93.5 92.8 -3.5 -2.2 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.1 2.2 5.1 90.1 89.1 -4.2 -2.4 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 -1.7 0.4 -0.1 5.8 97.7 94.8 -5.4 -4.5 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.8 3.1 2.5 5.3 93.9 92.3 -4.6 -3.5 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 -4.5 -0.3 -1.3 6.1 97.6 95.0 -9.4 -7.6 -6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.9 2.8 5.7 95.6 94.5 -4.5 -2.9 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.7 2.1 5.0 90.8 89.6 -4.1 -3.1 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.3 2.2 5.2 94.6 93.6 -4.6 -3.7 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 0.2 3.2 1.3 5.3 95.8 94.1 -4.7 -3.4 -0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.2 1.1 1.7 5.3 92.3 91.7 -4.0 -3.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.1 1.9 0.3 5.7 96.8 95.3 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.7 3.3 2.7 5.9 93.9 93.7 -4.3 -2.6 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 3.5 78.6 78.2 -5.4 -3.5 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 -1.7 1.3 -0.6 5.7 97.1 94.4 -7.1 -5.8 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.9 2.9 5.6 94.1 92.6 -4.5 -3.1 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------