***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 17.9 16.3 23.9 57.8 19.7 24.6 23.4 31.9 43.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 17.8 17.0 22.4 59.0 21.8 25.9 23.5 29.2 38.1 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 22.1 23.1 26.4 62.7 22.8 27.4 30.4 41.7 47.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 24.9 24.9 29.6 66.2 27.9 30.7 30.4 40.8 62.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 27.7 30.3 33.3 72.5 30.8 33.3 31.1 40.7 46.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 21.4 30.9 40.0 86.1 38.9 40.1 22.9 34.1 45.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 16.6 14.1 21.6 58.1 21.2 25.4 19.8 26.8 33.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 53.5 56.2 39.4 79.6 33.2 36.8 56.1 67.3 76.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 22.2 23.8 34.1 71.7 29.5 32.2 26.5 36.6 42.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 31.0 30.1 39.5 77.5 32.4 35.4 30.5 41.8 55.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 22.5 24.0 33.5 76.6 31.9 35.1 25.1 33.2 41.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 27.8 33.5 34.7 80.8 32.7 37.1 33.6 38.7 41.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 25.6 31.0 36.4 81.0 34.9 36.8 29.4 40.4 47.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 37.8 41.5 36.7 71.2 29.8 31.6 42.8 51.5 66.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 20.6 16.7 27.7 66.1 31.7 31.7 17.0 35.5 44.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 21.8 29.0 34.2 79.9 34.7 36.6 28.1 36.3 44.4 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 17.2 17.8 21.8 61.0 25.6 27.2 19.8 25.5 40.8 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 28.1 29.4 44.9 79.4 31.2 36.5 30.9 40.0 47.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 23.6 21.6 23.8 60.7 22.3 26.5 24.7 35.9 40.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 28.0 29.7 49.7 77.1 30.4 35.6 30.4 44.2 52.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 21.4 19.5 29.3 65.7 26.8 29.1 30.4 38.5 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 22.9 21.1 23.0 61.0 24.2 27.0 23.6 32.2 42.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 23.0 23.6 27.3 64.8 25.6 28.4 26.3 31.5 35.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 34.0 31.8 37.3 73.4 28.9 33.4 33.9 50.2 58.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 17.7 13.6 29.3 61.6 21.6 26.7 30.3 39.5 60.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 24.9 30.0 35.0 80.8 31.4 37.1 30.6 35.5 43.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 16.2 12.2 26.2 57.8 18.6 24.3 20.4 30.6 52.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 20.8 25.3 30.2 71.1 33.2 33.6 25.1 34.0 40.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 45.2 55.7 48.0 80.1 32.2 36.9 55.9 65.1 84.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 19.0 15.5 22.5 57.6 20.2 24.9 26.0 31.5 44.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------