***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.2 7.1 6.6 68.5 48.4 42.8 5.3 7.4 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.3 7.0 76.6 50.6 45.9 3.9 7.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 12.3 10.1 7.4 74.5 49.3 45.1 1.7 10.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.7 9.7 94.6 58.0 51.0 5.0 7.4 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.0 10.3 9.0 86.9 52.7 47.8 6.2 9.9 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.2 11.3 101.9 62.6 51.2 3.3 6.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.3 6.4 6.5 71.7 48.5 44.4 2.0 6.7 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 12.0 19.9 10.2 89.2 50.9 47.8 11.4 18.4 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.6 8.5 79.9 46.5 44.7 2.8 6.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.9 11.0 9.8 84.3 45.9 45.7 7.9 12.5 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.7 9.0 90.2 51.7 48.3 1.9 6.4 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.1 9.3 94.0 55.6 49.3 2.8 6.7 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.9 9.7 10.1 94.5 55.5 49.0 4.7 8.5 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.9 16.3 10.7 90.0 51.6 50.0 5.4 15.2 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.9 13.2 10.2 107.0 63.1 54.7 1.0 5.6 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.7 9.7 96.4 56.3 50.4 5.4 6.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.0 6.5 75.9 49.7 46.0 2.1 6.1 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.7 11.1 85.9 47.2 46.3 6.6 9.9 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.1 7.4 7.5 81.0 52.3 47.4 3.0 6.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.6 12.8 84.1 48.8 46.9 4.3 8.9 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.8 4.4 7.5 73.5 47.5 43.6 2.4 4.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.0 7.1 80.1 51.8 47.4 4.9 7.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.1 7.8 8.5 86.9 53.3 49.4 3.0 6.9 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.8 11.3 9.8 84.2 48.7 47.0 6.9 11.4 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.0 4.4 8.2 73.7 47.6 43.9 1.5 4.4 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.4 8.7 10.2 100.2 59.8 50.0 3.2 5.1 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.9 4.3 7.3 67.5 46.7 42.2 1.9 5.4 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.8 10.2 105.1 62.6 53.9 1.8 4.1 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.5 14.9 11.9 86.5 50.5 47.4 9.0 14.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.0 6.1 6.9 74.3 49.7 45.3 2.4 6.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------