***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 0.9 1.4 7.1 58.7 36.4 31.1 1.0 3.1 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 0.8 1.5 6.7 61.4 32.4 32.3 1.6 4.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 1.7 3.1 7.5 63.4 38.1 32.5 2.3 5.3 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.8 3.6 8.8 74.4 45.8 36.9 2.4 4.8 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.2 4.1 8.9 71.2 44.9 35.1 2.6 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.6 6.1 11.0 89.2 49.9 42.5 3.4 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 1.1 1.3 6.7 62.1 34.9 32.8 1.2 3.9 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 5.1 8.5 10.1 78.2 45.6 37.7 6.9 9.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.6 3.1 8.9 66.8 40.9 33.1 2.6 3.7 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 2.2 5.0 10.0 71.4 42.7 34.9 3.4 5.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 1.9 5.1 8.8 76.9 48.0 37.0 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.3 5.8 9.0 82.3 49.9 39.7 3.2 5.9 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.8 5.7 9.8 83.6 49.2 41.2 3.2 5.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 1.8 3.2 9.4 65.8 41.1 32.2 2.8 6.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 0.9 2.5 8.8 84.3 51.4 40.4 0.1 2.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.1 5.5 9.2 83.9 50.6 40.7 3.1 5.4 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 1.0 2.9 6.5 63.8 36.9 34.1 2.6 4.5 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 1.8 3.2 11.0 70.1 41.0 34.4 1.4 4.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 0.9 2.4 6.9 61.3 34.9 32.0 2.3 4.2 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 2.8 3.4 12.8 75.7 42.0 37.9 1.9 7.4 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.0 3.5 8.2 64.6 40.8 32.5 3.0 4.7 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 1.2 3.1 6.6 63.8 36.5 33.4 2.7 4.4 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 1.3 2.7 7.5 63.2 39.4 32.5 2.2 4.0 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 1.8 4.1 9.5 67.4 41.9 33.2 2.7 4.6 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.4 2.6 8.3 61.2 39.3 32.7 2.3 3.7 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.4 5.9 9.2 84.1 47.6 40.5 2.9 6.8 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 1.1 2.2 7.7 58.1 37.5 31.2 1.3 3.0 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.1 6.8 9.1 84.3 51.5 40.4 0.8 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 3.3 6.4 11.9 71.9 41.6 35.3 4.6 7.2 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 0.9 1.1 6.8 59.8 33.0 31.6 1.1 4.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------