***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.6 6.3 68.0 48.7 36.8 3.5 8.9 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.3 4.8 54.5 46.4 34.5 0.5 3.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.1 3.3 6.6 67.1 48.0 36.8 1.7 4.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.3 5.3 7.3 67.4 46.1 34.6 3.9 6.6 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.1 7.6 8.9 82.1 49.6 41.3 5.0 7.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 2.9 8.0 10.4 90.8 53.1 42.5 4.1 7.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.6 2.4 4.8 56.1 47.0 35.5 0.9 3.3 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 7.5 13.9 9.7 83.3 49.8 40.6 9.8 14.2 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.1 5.2 9.7 85.2 51.3 42.6 2.7 4.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 2.8 5.7 10.1 84.6 51.2 41.6 4.1 5.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.1 8.0 8.6 84.7 49.5 41.4 2.9 8.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 4.0 8.3 9.0 87.9 51.4 42.0 4.4 8.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 4.0 8.8 9.3 86.6 47.3 41.3 7.9 9.3 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.4 5.9 8.3 67.0 45.3 35.6 4.3 7.2 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.1 2.2 6.4 59.6 46.9 33.3 0.8 3.2 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 3.6 6.0 8.7 85.4 47.4 41.0 3.8 6.3 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.8 4.4 53.5 45.9 34.5 1.3 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.6 11.3 83.6 53.5 42.2 3.8 6.4 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.5 2.3 5.2 56.2 45.8 34.3 1.5 3.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.4 8.6 11.7 76.4 47.5 40.4 5.5 9.6 14.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.3 8.2 78.6 48.9 40.3 1.9 3.3 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 1.5 3.2 4.4 48.8 44.2 32.1 1.5 4.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.0 2.7 6.2 60.8 44.0 34.8 2.0 4.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.8 6.9 9.2 75.7 50.6 39.5 5.0 6.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.5 4.5 7.7 71.0 48.9 38.3 2.8 5.0 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 3.7 9.2 8.8 84.1 49.4 39.6 6.2 9.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.0 7.0 67.7 49.1 37.4 3.6 6.8 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.3 2.8 7.3 68.7 47.8 34.7 1.4 3.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.7 16.5 11.6 81.3 51.1 42.0 8.4 16.1 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.7 5.2 57.5 47.4 34.4 1.5 5.5 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------