***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 1.1 0.6 3.8 37.3 26.3 25.2 1.5 4.3 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.5 1.1 3.9 42.9 36.5 31.2 0.5 3.5 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 1.8 1.8 4.8 46.4 31.8 30.2 1.9 5.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 2.7 2.2 3.8 32.2 22.7 21.1 4.7 11.2 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.0 3.2 6.5 53.1 34.8 31.9 3.1 8.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 3.4 5.4 7.3 62.8 31.9 33.5 5.4 6.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 1.1 1.7 3.7 41.4 33.6 29.5 1.6 4.0 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.5 14.0 9.3 69.7 43.0 38.4 9.0 17.5 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.3 3.9 7.0 57.3 36.7 33.4 3.3 8.6 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.7 7.2 9.6 71.5 42.6 39.3 6.2 9.9 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.2 7.0 58.2 36.2 33.8 4.6 8.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.1 7.4 62.1 40.2 35.4 4.3 8.9 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 3.6 4.0 7.3 61.4 32.5 32.6 4.1 8.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 5.7 5.4 8.3 63.8 38.5 37.4 4.2 12.4 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 1.1 1.0 2.4 21.1 21.7 17.0 1.9 5.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.7 3.6 6.6 56.9 34.2 31.7 2.9 10.2 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.4 1.9 4.5 50.3 41.1 35.7 0.7 5.2 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 7.4 11.5 80.0 44.9 42.7 4.6 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.0 2.0 4.2 44.4 37.5 31.9 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.7 9.2 12.3 73.2 42.5 39.3 5.0 9.6 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.9 3.1 5.5 48.2 33.9 30.1 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.6 4.9 51.6 42.7 37.3 1.5 6.4 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.2 3.0 5.2 49.7 37.9 32.6 1.6 5.1 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.4 5.1 8.8 68.1 39.0 38.5 4.2 6.7 15.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 1.7 0.9 5.1 42.4 27.6 26.7 1.5 6.2 20.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.7 3.0 6.9 58.1 33.0 31.7 3.0 7.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 0.9 1.0 4.3 38.5 27.1 25.0 2.3 4.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 1.2 0.6 3.6 31.5 23.9 20.7 1.4 8.6 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.7 16.2 12.7 82.2 48.2 44.0 10.3 17.3 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 1.3 2.6 3.6 38.3 31.5 27.9 2.6 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------