***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 8.1 7.2 6.6 0.0 45.5 47.8 6.0 7.8 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 7.0 6.5 6.9 0.5 48.0 51.3 5.0 6.5 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 7.9 7.3 6.8 0.0 44.5 47.4 6.4 7.4 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 1.4 0.1 4.2 -0.5 43.4 44.0 -0.7 0.9 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 8.5 6.6 4.7 -0.6 41.3 43.2 6.2 7.9 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.8 3.2 -0.8 36.8 40.2 5.5 6.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 6.4 6.0 6.8 0.5 48.8 51.6 4.8 6.0 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -2.4 3.8 -0.7 39.9 41.4 -2.8 -1.2 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.7 7.0 5.6 -0.4 41.8 44.2 6.4 8.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.2 4.5 -0.6 40.2 42.4 6.3 7.8 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.6 7.1 4.6 -0.6 40.0 42.7 6.6 7.8 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.4 4.3 -0.7 38.4 41.2 6.1 7.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.5 6.9 3.9 -0.8 35.4 39.6 6.6 7.5 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 8.9 7.3 6.0 -0.3 42.6 45.6 6.1 8.2 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 7.2 5.8 4.8 -0.3 43.8 45.0 4.6 6.5 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.0 7.3 4.2 -0.7 37.0 41.4 7.0 8.1 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 6.5 6.2 6.9 0.6 50.2 53.0 4.5 6.2 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.0 4.1 -0.7 39.9 41.8 5.6 7.1 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 7.0 6.4 7.0 0.4 46.9 50.4 4.9 6.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.7 2.3 2.0 -0.9 37.2 39.4 2.0 3.1 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 8.4 7.4 6.1 -0.3 43.5 45.3 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 6.9 6.3 7.0 0.5 48.1 52.0 5.3 6.4 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 7.6 6.6 7.0 0.2 45.7 48.9 5.8 7.0 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 8.5 7.1 5.7 -0.4 42.0 44.3 6.7 7.8 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 7.3 5.9 4.9 -0.3 45.0 45.4 5.0 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.6 3.6 -0.8 37.6 39.3 6.1 7.6 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 7.5 6.6 5.8 -0.1 45.5 47.0 6.3 7.0 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.0 6.2 4.5 -0.5 41.9 43.8 4.9 7.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 4.0 2.5 3.3 -0.7 39.6 41.8 1.6 3.2 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 6.7 6.2 6.9 0.4 47.1 50.2 5.3 6.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------