***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 11.8 12.2 10.0 0.9 54.5 55.7 7.4 11.4 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 10.1 11.0 10.2 1.1 56.8 57.7 7.7 9.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 11.6 11.3 10.2 0.8 52.4 54.6 8.6 11.1 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.1 7.7 0.6 54.9 53.7 -0.1 3.3 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.6 8.2 0.5 52.2 53.1 8.8 11.2 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.5 6.5 0.5 52.5 53.0 7.1 10.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 10.0 11.5 10.1 1.1 58.4 58.5 7.3 9.2 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.1 0.9 7.0 0.4 52.3 52.3 -1.4 0.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 12.2 11.8 8.9 0.6 51.0 52.9 9.4 11.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.5 7.9 0.5 53.0 52.8 9.1 11.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.3 11.9 7.9 0.5 51.7 52.8 8.9 11.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.9 7.6 0.4 51.7 51.8 8.5 10.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.8 7.2 0.4 53.1 52.1 8.9 11.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.3 9.4 0.8 54.1 54.6 9.7 11.8 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.4 7.8 0.5 55.7 53.8 6.1 8.4 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.7 7.5 0.4 51.3 52.3 9.4 11.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.6 11.8 10.1 1.2 58.7 58.8 6.7 8.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.0 7.5 0.6 53.8 53.5 9.5 10.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.4 10.4 1.0 54.7 56.6 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.9 5.1 0.5 54.3 53.3 4.2 5.7 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 12.0 11.6 9.5 0.6 51.2 53.6 8.9 11.5 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.7 10.3 10.3 1.1 56.0 58.0 6.9 9.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.2 10.4 0.9 52.6 55.3 9.2 10.7 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.5 9.1 0.7 53.2 53.8 9.6 12.1 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.3 9.7 8.3 0.8 55.3 55.5 7.5 9.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.6 10.9 6.7 0.3 51.1 51.3 8.6 10.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.0 9.2 0.9 56.0 56.6 8.1 10.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.6 9.5 7.8 0.5 53.6 53.0 6.5 9.4 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.6 6.6 0.6 54.2 54.5 4.5 5.8 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.1 10.3 1.0 55.7 57.0 7.7 9.5 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------