***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9.1 10.9 8.0 0.8 61.1 57.4 5.9 8.0 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.5 9.8 8.3 1.1 62.5 59.5 4.5 6.5 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.5 8.3 0.8 58.8 56.4 6.0 7.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 1.9 1.6 5.8 0.5 56.7 54.3 -1.3 0.5 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.9 8.9 6.3 0.4 58.1 53.8 5.6 8.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.4 5.0 0.5 56.2 53.9 5.4 7.1 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.4 10.0 8.2 1.2 64.3 60.3 4.6 6.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.6 0.6 5.3 0.3 52.7 52.1 -2.8 0.1 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.2 7.0 0.5 58.3 54.0 6.1 8.5 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.8 6.1 0.4 55.4 52.7 5.9 8.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.4 6.1 0.4 56.8 53.3 6.0 8.7 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.3 5.9 0.3 51.4 52.1 5.5 8.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.7 5.5 0.4 52.2 52.8 6.4 8.1 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.6 7.5 0.7 58.6 54.3 6.2 8.8 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 8.2 8.1 6.1 0.6 55.5 55.2 4.6 7.2 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.0 5.7 0.4 54.9 53.1 6.5 9.1 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.0 9.2 8.2 1.2 64.0 60.8 4.5 6.0 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.0 5.7 0.3 51.5 51.8 6.2 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 7.6 10.3 8.5 1.1 60.8 58.4 4.7 6.3 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.4 3.4 0.2 49.8 51.0 2.0 3.5 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.7 7.6 0.6 58.6 55.2 6.0 8.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.7 10.9 8.4 1.1 62.7 59.5 4.8 6.5 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.2 9.4 8.5 0.9 58.0 56.7 6.0 6.8 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.3 9.4 7.2 0.5 54.7 53.3 6.4 8.6 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 8.5 8.1 6.4 0.7 59.1 56.5 4.8 7.5 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.9 5.2 0.3 51.9 52.3 6.1 8.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 9.0 8.6 7.2 0.8 61.2 57.6 5.3 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.9 8.0 6.0 0.5 55.3 54.0 5.2 7.7 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.8 4.8 0.4 51.8 52.1 1.9 5.2 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.6 8.8 8.3 1.1 62.1 58.8 4.7 6.4 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------