***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 6.3 5.4 5.9 0.3 49.3 52.1 4.9 5.4 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 5.4 5.1 6.1 0.7 53.6 54.9 3.1 4.7 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 6.5 5.8 6.1 0.3 50.1 52.1 3.5 5.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 0.4 0.0 3.9 -0.1 51.0 49.6 -2.7 -0.2 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.1 6.1 4.2 -0.3 50.3 48.4 3.7 6.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.5 2.8 -0.7 43.7 44.9 2.9 5.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 4.9 4.5 6.0 0.7 53.6 54.8 2.8 4.2 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -4.1 -2.2 3.3 -0.5 47.4 46.1 -3.5 -1.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.6 6.5 4.9 -0.2 50.1 49.2 4.4 6.5 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.2 4.0 -0.5 48.7 46.7 4.2 6.2 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.8 6.2 4.1 -0.3 48.3 47.8 4.5 6.7 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.5 3.9 -0.5 46.0 46.3 4.1 5.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.3 5.3 3.2 -0.7 43.5 44.6 4.5 5.7 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 7.3 6.3 5.1 -0.2 48.7 49.2 3.6 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 6.3 6.2 4.5 0.3 54.0 51.9 3.4 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.0 3.7 -0.5 46.0 46.7 4.7 6.4 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 4.6 5.9 6.1 0.8 57.0 56.5 2.6 4.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 5.3 3.4 -0.7 46.3 44.8 3.3 5.6 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 5.9 6.2 6.2 0.6 52.5 54.4 2.9 5.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 0.5 1.5 1.6 -0.9 44.0 43.1 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 7.5 6.6 5.5 0.0 50.0 50.9 3.8 6.6 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 5.7 5.7 6.3 0.8 56.7 56.3 2.8 5.2 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 6.5 5.9 6.2 0.3 50.7 52.8 2.9 5.9 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.4 6.5 4.9 -0.3 48.4 48.1 3.7 6.5 9.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 5.3 4.7 4.3 0.0 50.9 50.6 3.6 4.7 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.9 4.8 3.1 -0.6 42.3 44.6 4.7 5.4 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 6.2 5.2 5.0 0.1 48.7 50.9 4.1 5.3 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 6.9 6.3 4.2 0.0 51.2 50.1 3.8 6.3 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.2 1.7 2.6 -0.8 45.1 43.9 0.1 2.6 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 5.4 5.0 6.1 0.6 51.7 54.0 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------