***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.1 2.5 -1.9 35.7 34.9 3.0 4.4 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 5.1 3.5 3.1 -0.9 37.9 38.9 3.1 4.3 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.6 3.3 2.7 -1.9 34.7 34.6 3.1 4.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -4.1 -3.6 -0.6 -2.8 26.8 28.7 -2.5 -0.8 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.5 0.3 -2.9 26.2 28.1 3.6 5.0 8.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 1.8 1.6 -1.5 -3.7 19.3 19.6 3.3 4.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 4.7 3.4 2.9 -1.0 38.4 38.8 2.7 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -4.9 -4.0 -0.5 -3.0 23.8 25.1 -3.3 -1.4 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.3 2.9 1.5 -2.6 29.0 30.3 3.4 5.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 2.7 2.7 0.3 -2.9 25.9 26.9 3.5 5.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 2.5 2.5 0.3 -2.9 26.2 27.7 3.7 5.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.2 3.0 0.0 -3.0 25.3 25.9 3.2 5.4 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 2.4 2.6 -0.3 -3.4 22.8 22.2 4.4 5.6 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.3 3.6 1.9 -2.3 33.1 33.4 3.6 5.3 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.2 2.2 0.8 -2.6 29.1 30.3 2.5 6.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 2.9 2.7 -0.1 -3.1 25.2 25.3 4.8 6.0 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 4.9 3.2 3.1 -0.7 41.1 41.5 2.6 4.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 2.1 2.9 -0.1 -3.0 27.1 26.0 3.6 5.1 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 4.9 3.3 3.0 -1.1 37.0 38.1 3.2 3.9 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 -0.5 -0.4 -2.0 -3.2 20.7 21.6 0.6 3.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.9 3.1 2.0 -2.5 30.6 31.3 3.2 4.8 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 5.7 4.0 3.1 -1.0 41.2 40.8 3.6 5.1 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.7 3.9 2.9 -1.5 35.2 36.4 3.8 4.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 2.7 3.5 1.5 -2.6 30.8 30.4 3.6 4.8 8.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.4 2.6 0.6 -2.7 29.8 30.0 3.1 4.8 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 2.4 2.9 -0.8 -3.3 20.7 21.4 4.1 6.1 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 3.4 1.7 -2.2 33.2 32.8 3.4 4.8 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 1.9 2.7 0.0 -2.8 26.7 28.4 3.7 6.0 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -3.0 24.9 24.8 0.0 1.9 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 5.1 3.3 3.0 -1.2 37.1 37.7 2.9 4.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------