***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 0.1 40.8 43.6 -1.6 -0.5 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 0.4 46.7 48.0 -2.6 -1.3 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 1.0 -0.1 -1.7 -0.1 39.1 42.4 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -7.0 -7.1 -5.1 -1.1 30.5 33.3 -6.9 -5.1 -3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -2.2 -4.3 -0.7 34.6 37.2 -2.4 -1.9 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -3.0 -6.2 -1.0 30.3 36.0 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 -0.8 -1.2 -1.3 0.4 46.1 47.9 -2.2 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -9.4 -9.7 -6.3 -1.4 28.0 32.4 -9.0 -8.1 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.7 -3.4 -0.4 36.6 40.2 -1.8 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -2.4 -1.8 -5.6 -1.2 29.3 33.7 -1.6 -1.1 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -1.8 -4.5 -0.7 31.8 36.7 -1.8 -1.0 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -3.0 -4.9 -0.9 31.0 35.7 -3.0 -2.3 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -2.2 -5.1 -0.8 32.7 36.2 -2.2 -1.4 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 -2.4 -1.5 -3.8 -0.8 31.7 36.2 -1.5 -0.6 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -2.7 -1.8 -4.3 -0.9 32.1 34.3 -1.8 -0.9 0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -1.4 -4.8 -0.7 32.3 36.9 -1.4 -0.7 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 0.6 47.1 49.9 -2.1 -1.0 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 -4.7 -3.6 -6.9 -1.9 26.6 29.1 -3.4 -3.1 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 -1.1 -1.5 -1.4 0.3 46.4 47.2 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 -9.0 -7.7 -8.3 -1.9 25.8 28.5 -7.6 -6.0 -4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -2.0 -2.4 -0.2 36.8 40.6 -2.1 -1.1 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 0.4 47.5 48.3 -2.4 -1.3 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 -1.3 -1.6 -1.8 0.2 44.0 45.5 -2.2 -1.4 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -3.0 -2.1 -4.3 -1.0 31.4 34.6 -2.0 -1.5 -0.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 -1.1 -1.6 -3.4 -0.4 38.4 39.5 -2.0 -1.2 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -2.1 -4.9 -0.8 30.7 35.6 -2.1 -1.5 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 -0.6 -1.9 -2.3 -0.1 40.9 42.6 -2.0 -0.8 -0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -3.7 -3.5 -4.7 -1.0 31.3 34.4 -3.5 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 -6.0 -6.0 -7.4 -2.0 25.4 27.9 -5.4 -4.4 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 -0.6 -1.3 -1.3 0.3 45.1 46.6 -2.2 -0.8 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------