***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 57.0 55.5 -1.1 0.5 3.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 59.8 57.2 -1.1 0.4 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.7 0.7 0.8 54.2 54.9 1.1 2.5 3.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 0.9 56.7 59.0 -5.5 -4.6 -1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 0.1 -0.1 -1.6 0.7 53.3 56.8 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -0.8 -1.2 -3.2 0.9 51.9 58.5 -2.8 -1.3 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 60.2 57.5 -0.5 0.6 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -5.2 -5.6 -2.9 0.8 49.8 56.4 -8.1 -5.6 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 1.5 1.0 -1.0 0.5 52.8 54.8 -0.8 0.9 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 0.9 0.3 -2.4 0.6 50.3 55.3 -0.5 0.3 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.2 -1.9 0.7 51.8 57.4 -0.9 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 -0.2 -0.7 -2.2 0.6 46.7 55.2 -2.3 -0.6 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 0.3 -0.4 -2.6 0.6 47.2 55.7 -1.0 -0.2 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 1.4 0.8 -0.8 0.6 50.8 54.0 0.3 0.8 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 1.1 1.0 -1.1 1.0 53.7 59.0 -0.9 0.6 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 1.4 0.9 -2.2 0.7 50.4 57.2 -0.5 0.8 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 60.6 57.7 -0.6 0.9 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -0.8 -1.3 -3.1 0.5 47.3 53.5 -2.9 -1.2 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 58.1 56.6 -0.9 0.7 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -3.6 -4.0 -4.3 1.0 52.9 57.5 -6.4 -4.3 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.6 54.6 54.5 -0.6 0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 59.2 57.1 -1.1 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 55.0 55.7 -1.2 0.3 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 0.6 0.1 -1.2 0.5 49.9 53.3 -0.7 0.1 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 0.7 0.6 -0.7 0.9 59.6 58.0 -0.7 0.2 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 0.5 0.1 -2.3 0.6 48.1 55.4 -1.0 0.1 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.8 58.6 56.5 -0.8 0.4 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -0.4 -0.7 -1.5 1.0 53.4 58.7 -2.4 -1.0 0.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -1.4 -3.5 0.7 50.9 55.3 -3.5 -1.6 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 56.6 56.7 -0.7 1.0 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------