***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 -3.6 -4.0 -4.2 -1.0 30.4 33.5 -3.8 -1.5 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -3.8 -4.4 -3.8 -0.4 33.5 36.2 -4.4 -2.3 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 -2.9 -2.8 -4.8 -1.5 28.4 30.7 -2.7 -0.9 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 -10.4 -10.9 -10.3 -5.1 15.4 17.6 -8.4 -6.8 -3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 -4.8 -4.3 -7.7 -3.1 22.8 24.5 -3.7 -2.3 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 -7.0 -6.6 -10.5 -4.1 19.0 21.1 -4.6 -3.3 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -3.9 -3.8 -0.3 34.2 36.5 -3.9 -2.5 0.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 -11.4 -11.5 -11.0 -4.9 17.2 18.4 -9.7 -8.2 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 -4.6 -4.5 -6.4 -2.1 27.4 29.2 -4.1 -2.3 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 -4.6 -4.9 -9.8 -4.1 20.1 22.0 -3.3 -2.2 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 -4.7 -4.2 -8.3 -3.3 22.3 23.4 -3.7 -1.9 -1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -6.5 -5.8 -8.9 -3.5 22.6 23.4 -4.7 -3.4 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 -5.0 -5.5 -8.6 -3.1 21.7 24.7 -4.3 -2.4 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 -4.5 -3.8 -7.8 -3.5 21.5 24.3 -2.8 -2.0 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 -5.1 -5.3 -9.4 -5.2 15.8 17.8 -3.3 -1.4 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 -4.3 -4.4 -8.5 -3.3 21.3 23.6 -3.1 -1.5 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 -1.4 -3.8 -3.6 0.0 36.1 39.5 -3.9 -1.8 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 -6.8 -7.0 -11.7 -5.3 17.5 18.1 -4.7 -4.1 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -4.3 -3.8 -3.9 -0.5 32.3 35.6 -3.8 -2.7 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 -11.5 -11.7 -12.7 -5.0 15.2 16.3 -8.9 -7.5 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 -4.5 -4.3 -5.2 -1.8 27.0 29.6 -4.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -3.7 -3.7 -0.3 33.8 38.6 -3.8 -2.5 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 -4.6 -4.0 -4.4 -0.8 30.5 34.2 -4.0 -2.9 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 -5.1 -4.9 -8.4 -3.7 21.6 23.2 -3.6 -2.7 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 -3.9 -3.9 -6.8 -2.8 24.1 25.6 -3.6 -2.4 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 -5.6 -4.9 -8.5 -3.1 19.9 22.8 -3.7 -1.9 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 -4.3 -4.3 -5.2 -1.5 28.9 31.0 -3.8 -1.7 0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 -5.9 -6.3 -9.5 -4.9 15.5 18.3 -5.2 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 -7.9 -8.1 -12.1 -5.4 15.5 16.6 -7.1 -5.6 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 -4.1 -3.7 -3.9 -0.6 32.5 35.1 -3.7 -2.5 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------