***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 38.3 39.0 50.9 112.8 60.7 58.7 23.6 31.9 42.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 34.1 40.6 46.7 117.7 67.4 59.3 21.2 27.8 38.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 49.4 42.7 49.1 107.6 57.4 55.2 30.7 41.0 46.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 30.7 42.4 51.9 95.2 48.9 48.0 29.2 43.0 64.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 30.1 41.4 50.0 94.1 48.5 47.2 30.9 41.6 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.6 33.0 46.7 87.6 41.5 41.3 22.9 34.1 46.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 40.5 42.4 46.5 121.1 69.2 60.9 18.9 26.8 33.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 52.8 59.1 53.3 93.1 44.3 46.2 54.7 65.5 79.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 25.6 36.6 50.3 94.2 49.7 47.3 23.7 36.6 44.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 34.1 39.0 52.8 92.0 44.5 45.5 30.4 43.3 59.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 24.3 32.6 47.4 90.0 42.3 44.5 26.0 33.2 42.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 29.7 36.9 47.0 91.2 42.1 44.7 33.6 38.9 44.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.5 34.7 48.9 89.3 41.7 42.6 29.4 40.4 50.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 59.0 56.3 60.0 101.3 54.0 50.8 43.8 54.3 66.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 23.4 37.9 48.0 94.9 49.8 48.3 18.4 37.9 45.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 23.2 31.8 47.1 89.4 41.9 43.4 28.1 36.5 45.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 31.5 43.7 45.8 120.7 67.5 59.7 21.3 25.7 41.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 45.4 37.8 57.3 95.7 47.3 47.0 31.0 39.4 52.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 41.7 40.0 47.5 114.5 63.8 57.9 25.1 36.6 40.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 51.9 45.6 72.9 102.1 54.8 51.6 30.4 45.6 53.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 25.7 41.7 49.7 100.0 54.0 51.2 26.9 38.5 52.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 36.4 42.5 47.8 118.3 66.7 59.1 23.4 33.3 42.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 35.6 35.6 49.9 109.8 58.7 55.6 26.4 33.1 40.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 54.1 50.3 54.4 98.3 50.5 48.9 34.4 50.2 59.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 45.2 48.1 55.1 105.4 59.1 54.9 30.3 37.4 61.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 38.2 35.5 51.7 98.0 50.6 48.6 29.3 35.1 43.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 36.7 46.4 53.2 112.1 62.6 58.5 21.4 30.6 52.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 21.7 31.6 47.0 89.6 44.6 44.5 25.7 34.0 43.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 72.9 66.6 63.3 100.3 51.9 49.2 55.9 65.6 84.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 36.7 42.8 47.6 116.1 65.5 58.9 23.0 30.5 44.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------