***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.7 12.5 103.5 60.5 50.9 3.6 6.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.3 11.9 109.4 65.7 51.3 5.3 9.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.8 14.8 12.8 104.0 61.7 50.6 5.1 10.5 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.2 13.4 13.0 91.9 53.5 47.4 5.4 8.7 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.0 9.5 12.8 91.5 52.9 46.8 5.4 9.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.8 12.0 80.7 47.9 43.2 3.2 5.2 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.0 11.8 112.6 63.4 51.9 2.6 7.4 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.7 19.9 14.2 94.3 56.2 49.2 12.8 17.8 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.7 13.5 94.0 54.1 47.6 4.3 6.7 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.5 13.0 14.3 92.9 54.8 48.1 8.4 12.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.4 12.0 87.1 52.5 46.4 3.0 5.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.4 12.0 89.4 54.3 47.5 3.1 6.9 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.3 12.7 87.5 51.9 45.4 3.9 7.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.8 25.4 17.5 108.6 64.2 49.9 10.0 15.6 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.8 12.4 92.2 56.9 48.2 1.1 6.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.2 11.8 84.1 49.9 44.5 1.5 7.3 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.4 11.8 114.9 65.6 52.9 2.9 6.4 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 11.6 16.3 101.7 61.2 49.1 7.3 10.3 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.9 12.2 107.8 64.9 50.8 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 12.1 21.3 110.9 64.0 51.7 4.3 9.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.7 13.0 98.3 58.3 49.2 3.0 7.4 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.3 12.4 114.0 64.6 52.8 5.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.5 13.3 108.1 64.0 50.4 3.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.3 17.6 15.6 104.5 63.0 49.5 9.1 11.8 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.7 12.4 13.7 100.9 59.8 50.4 2.3 9.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.8 6.6 13.6 96.6 53.1 49.1 2.4 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.8 13.0 102.7 59.8 50.7 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.8 11.8 84.1 51.0 44.9 2.1 4.3 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.7 17.8 18.8 110.2 64.7 50.4 12.1 15.8 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.0 14.9 12.3 108.8 64.2 51.0 4.2 7.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------