***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.6 8.9 78.1 47.9 43.2 1.6 4.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.2 8.1 80.4 51.0 44.2 1.2 4.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.1 9.0 75.7 48.0 42.2 2.3 5.5 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.3 10.9 80.3 52.5 43.9 2.2 4.5 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.2 10.8 78.6 50.2 43.2 2.4 4.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.4 7.9 10.9 81.2 51.6 43.6 3.9 7.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.8 3.7 7.9 80.5 52.8 44.3 1.1 3.5 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.7 12.8 89.8 56.5 47.8 6.8 10.4 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.9 11.3 78.2 48.3 42.5 1.7 3.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.9 12.8 85.8 53.3 46.1 3.4 6.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.3 11.1 84.6 53.4 45.3 1.8 6.1 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.1 11.2 88.5 56.2 46.7 2.7 6.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.1 7.5 10.9 81.7 51.7 44.2 2.7 7.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.7 5.6 11.9 75.5 45.3 41.9 2.2 9.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.8 2.9 11.4 88.5 58.4 46.5 0.0 1.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.9 10.6 81.6 52.0 43.9 2.4 6.3 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.6 8.0 84.2 54.3 44.4 2.3 5.0 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.9 5.3 13.7 85.9 54.3 46.4 1.2 3.5 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.7 3.8 8.4 79.5 50.1 44.0 2.0 3.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.8 16.7 88.6 57.2 48.3 2.6 9.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.2 9.8 74.5 44.7 41.2 1.8 4.4 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.3 8.6 84.6 54.0 45.2 1.7 4.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.7 9.0 76.9 48.4 42.7 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.2 4.6 11.8 78.9 48.5 43.2 1.8 4.9 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.5 10.2 77.5 46.0 42.4 2.5 4.5 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.5 11.0 84.0 50.6 43.6 3.1 8.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 4.1 9.4 78.2 47.1 43.2 1.7 5.6 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 7.9 11.0 83.3 55.2 44.9 0.9 4.6 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 12.3 14.9 87.8 54.5 47.3 3.4 11.1 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.9 8.2 78.1 49.2 43.7 1.4 4.2 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------