***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.7 10.3 94.4 59.4 49.0 3.9 9.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.5 10.7 10.0 111.1 65.9 53.3 1.3 2.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.1 11.1 100.9 60.3 51.2 2.7 5.4 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.4 10.9 82.8 53.3 46.1 7.1 10.2 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.3 9.5 11.2 89.5 55.3 47.9 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.6 5.8 10.0 79.9 50.1 42.7 4.4 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.0 6.8 9.7 111.0 64.8 53.2 1.3 4.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.7 17.9 11.3 85.2 54.0 47.0 11.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.9 11.8 93.5 56.5 49.4 4.0 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.9 12.3 93.9 57.9 50.5 5.6 9.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.3 7.1 11.1 88.9 55.6 48.8 5.2 6.8 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.1 8.8 10.3 83.0 51.8 46.3 5.3 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.0 11.3 88.7 53.1 47.9 6.5 9.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.9 9.1 13.2 95.2 56.6 48.9 5.0 7.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.5 9.5 77.4 54.5 44.9 1.1 3.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.8 7.1 10.2 80.9 50.0 44.4 4.0 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.6 7.8 9.4 111.1 67.4 51.3 1.2 3.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.8 13.0 93.7 59.3 50.1 3.8 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.9 8.2 10.3 107.2 63.5 52.1 1.5 3.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.2 14.9 90.0 56.0 48.3 5.1 9.7 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.8 6.4 11.3 93.5 57.0 49.3 2.2 5.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.7 10.0 108.2 66.7 49.7 2.0 4.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.4 10.8 100.3 59.2 50.5 2.3 4.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.4 12.6 95.5 58.7 50.5 5.0 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.2 11.5 89.5 55.2 48.1 3.2 6.8 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.7 8.0 10.0 79.2 46.6 42.9 4.9 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.8 10.9 94.4 58.2 49.6 3.7 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.2 5.9 10.0 79.2 52.9 45.2 1.5 4.8 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 19.8 13.8 94.8 58.2 50.8 11.7 15.6 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.8 10.3 107.7 64.2 53.0 1.5 4.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------