***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 14.5 19.2 19.1 179.3 80.6 75.7 1.6 5.2 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.9 19.1 16.7 171.8 78.7 73.4 1.1 2.9 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 17.9 20.1 16.1 155.8 75.3 70.4 2.0 6.0 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 10.5 18.7 17.1 125.5 67.8 63.4 2.6 8.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 12.7 16.2 15.2 118.1 66.0 61.3 2.8 11.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 7.9 11.7 13.9 110.4 62.9 58.4 5.0 6.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 9.6 12.4 17.1 182.2 81.1 75.4 1.9 4.5 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 19.1 19.1 14.9 103.2 57.0 53.7 8.5 16.8 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 10.3 13.0 13.5 114.7 65.1 60.2 3.3 9.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.9 13.1 13.4 96.8 55.9 51.8 6.1 9.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 10.1 10.4 13.3 99.9 57.9 54.3 4.8 8.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.5 13.5 103.7 60.0 54.9 2.7 7.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.1 10.8 13.9 98.9 57.9 53.1 3.8 9.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 19.3 19.4 17.4 129.1 69.5 64.1 8.5 14.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 5.9 15.8 14.7 122.8 70.3 63.7 1.7 3.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 10.6 10.7 14.6 111.2 62.7 58.3 1.4 9.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 11.4 13.9 16.6 171.5 78.5 72.5 1.8 8.4 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.9 8.9 14.2 102.1 57.9 52.5 3.9 7.2 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 14.7 20.0 16.7 165.7 77.7 72.7 2.5 5.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.1 12.6 20.0 122.4 65.7 58.9 3.3 10.1 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 15.4 16.6 15.5 138.5 71.2 66.4 2.9 6.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 48 52 100 10.5 14.1 16.9 165.4 77.5 72.2 3.2 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 13.7 18.2 16.8 157.1 75.6 71.4 1.4 5.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.4 15.1 14.4 117.1 64.1 58.7 4.6 9.4 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 22.0 31.5 19.7 155.0 77.3 71.3 2.1 5.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 5.8 7.6 17.1 132.3 71.5 65.2 2.4 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 21.2 28.1 20.0 176.3 80.9 75.8 2.4 5.9 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 7.9 14.6 14.3 112.6 65.8 59.9 1.8 6.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.3 17.8 15.8 109.5 60.1 54.1 8.7 15.1 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.2 13.7 16.9 174.2 79.4 74.3 2.4 4.1 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------