***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 8.2 9.9 8.4 1.6 64.5 64.6 5.8 7.7 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 7.4 8.1 8.2 1.4 63.3 62.1 5.2 6.7 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.1 9.4 8.8 1.6 64.8 64.1 6.3 7.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 2.7 3.2 6.0 1.8 66.2 66.2 -0.4 0.9 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 9.8 10.2 7.3 1.7 68.2 66.0 6.1 7.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 9.0 8.7 5.8 1.6 69.8 65.4 5.7 6.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 6.9 7.7 8.1 1.4 63.6 62.8 4.7 6.2 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -0.1 0.3 6.1 1.5 69.3 64.9 -2.7 -1.4 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 9.9 10.0 8.0 1.6 67.1 65.3 6.6 8.0 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 9.9 10.3 6.9 1.5 68.2 64.9 6.4 7.7 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.5 7.5 1.7 70.3 66.3 6.7 7.8 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 9.4 9.6 6.8 1.5 69.6 65.4 6.1 7.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.0 6.8 1.6 71.1 66.3 6.8 7.6 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 10.3 10.7 8.0 1.5 66.1 63.7 6.3 8.3 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 9.2 9.0 7.0 1.6 64.4 64.1 4.6 6.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 10.7 10.5 6.9 1.7 70.5 66.4 7.0 8.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 6.9 7.6 7.9 1.3 61.7 61.1 4.4 6.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 9.2 10.2 6.6 1.6 69.1 65.5 5.7 7.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 7.3 9.1 8.4 1.4 63.3 62.2 5.0 6.6 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 5.5 5.7 4.4 1.4 71.3 65.5 2.1 3.3 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 9.6 9.4 8.6 1.6 66.1 65.1 6.4 7.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.4 8.4 8.1 1.2 62.0 61.1 5.1 6.5 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.8 8.7 1.4 63.1 62.4 5.7 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 9.8 9.7 8.0 1.6 67.7 64.9 6.6 7.8 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 8.9 8.5 7.2 1.6 65.0 65.5 5.1 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 9.5 8.9 6.0 1.5 69.1 66.0 5.9 7.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.7 8.7 7.9 1.5 65.3 65.0 6.2 7.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 10.1 10.4 6.5 1.7 66.2 65.1 4.7 7.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 5.1 5.9 5.9 1.5 70.0 65.8 1.9 3.2 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 7.0 8.1 8.3 1.5 63.6 63.0 5.3 6.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------