***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.0 9.4 0.8 55.7 58.0 6.8 11.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.5 9.1 0.7 54.8 56.8 7.3 8.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.1 9.8 0.8 55.0 57.5 8.1 10.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.9 7.4 1.2 59.7 60.2 0.1 3.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.5 8.3 1.0 57.2 59.2 8.7 11.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.9 6.6 1.1 60.5 58.5 7.4 9.6 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.1 9.1 0.7 54.7 57.1 7.4 8.4 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.4 2.0 6.9 0.8 56.0 57.5 -1.0 0.8 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.7 8.7 1.0 56.5 58.4 8.8 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.5 7.7 0.9 55.4 57.6 8.6 11.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.0 8.1 0.9 57.2 58.5 8.6 11.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.6 7.7 0.8 56.7 57.8 8.4 10.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.4 7.0 0.9 60.8 58.7 8.8 10.5 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.4 8.6 0.7 55.8 56.6 8.9 11.8 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.3 8.0 1.1 57.9 59.8 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.6 7.6 1.0 59.2 58.9 9.0 11.1 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.8 8.9 0.6 54.3 56.1 6.7 8.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.1 7.4 0.8 56.4 57.4 8.7 10.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.4 9.4 0.7 54.5 56.6 7.3 9.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.4 4.8 0.8 58.3 57.4 4.6 5.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.4 9.4 0.9 56.5 58.2 8.5 11.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.0 9.1 0.5 53.9 55.7 7.0 9.6 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.5 9.7 0.7 54.0 56.3 8.5 10.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.2 8.6 0.8 55.9 57.4 8.9 11.6 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.4 8.0 0.9 57.3 59.0 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.1 6.8 0.9 60.6 59.1 8.4 10.4 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.9 8.7 0.8 56.0 58.3 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.0 7.6 1.1 59.3 59.9 7.1 9.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.8 6.4 0.8 56.4 57.2 4.6 6.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.5 9.2 0.7 54.4 57.2 7.4 9.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------