***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.5 5.5 6.6 -0.9 38.9 43.9 5.4 7.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.2 6.6 -0.8 38.1 44.4 4.6 6.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.2 5.5 6.9 -1.1 37.2 43.0 5.3 6.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -1.8 -0.8 3.9 -1.2 35.6 42.2 -0.8 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.2 5.9 4.9 -1.3 35.5 41.3 5.5 7.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.7 5.2 3.3 -1.6 34.8 39.8 4.8 6.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.7 5.1 6.7 -0.6 40.4 45.0 4.6 5.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -3.2 -2.4 4.1 -1.3 37.1 41.7 -2.6 -1.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.8 6.6 5.5 -1.4 36.5 41.0 6.1 7.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 6.3 4.6 -1.4 37.5 41.5 5.5 7.7 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.7 6.1 4.9 -1.3 36.0 41.5 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.2 6.6 4.8 -1.3 37.7 41.9 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.6 6.3 4.2 -1.2 37.8 42.3 6.0 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.2 5.9 5.9 -1.2 38.7 42.6 5.7 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.4 4.8 4.4 -1.3 35.6 41.8 4.5 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 6.1 7.3 4.4 -1.3 36.6 41.5 6.5 8.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.1 6.7 -0.7 38.6 44.4 4.8 5.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.4 4.6 -1.2 39.9 42.9 5.5 7.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.1 6.7 -0.9 38.1 43.7 4.8 5.8 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 1.1 2.0 2.6 -1.0 39.1 43.9 1.6 2.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.7 6.3 6.2 -1.3 36.7 41.7 5.7 7.4 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.7 5.1 6.6 -0.9 37.3 43.2 4.9 5.8 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.7 6.9 -1.1 38.6 42.8 5.6 6.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.0 6.7 5.8 -1.2 38.9 42.6 5.8 7.8 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.6 5.3 5.0 -1.1 37.8 42.9 5.2 6.3 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 5.8 6.6 4.2 -1.1 38.4 42.8 6.4 7.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.0 6.1 -0.9 39.5 44.0 5.4 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.2 4.0 -1.4 34.0 41.1 5.2 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 1.8 2.2 4.0 -1.1 40.4 43.8 2.0 4.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.0 4.9 6.6 -0.8 38.6 44.3 4.6 5.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------