***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.2 7.2 1.1 55.3 58.1 4.6 5.5 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.4 7.2 1.1 55.5 58.0 2.9 5.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.2 7.7 1.1 54.5 57.9 4.1 6.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.7 0.2 4.6 1.4 60.0 59.2 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.7 6.0 1.2 56.6 58.0 4.3 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 8.2 5.7 4.6 1.0 57.5 57.9 3.5 4.5 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.8 7.1 1.1 55.7 58.1 2.6 4.4 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -4.3 -1.8 5.2 1.2 59.0 58.4 -3.7 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.7 6.9 1.1 56.0 57.8 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.6 5.8 1.1 57.8 57.9 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.8 6.4 1.2 56.7 58.1 4.3 6.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.3 5.7 1.1 57.4 58.0 4.4 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 9.4 7.2 5.8 1.0 56.9 57.9 4.2 5.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.6 7.2 1.2 56.5 57.9 3.1 6.5 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.9 6.1 1.5 60.4 59.4 3.5 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 9.9 7.6 5.8 1.1 57.7 58.0 4.5 6.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.9 7.0 1.1 55.8 57.6 2.3 4.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 7.9 6.2 5.6 1.2 57.4 58.2 4.1 5.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.0 7.4 1.1 55.8 57.9 3.0 5.3 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 5.2 3.3 3.8 1.2 59.8 58.8 0.6 2.1 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.8 7.5 1.1 55.6 57.5 4.6 6.0 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.7 7.2 1.1 56.2 57.5 2.7 4.9 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.0 7.7 1.1 55.9 57.8 2.8 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 8.9 6.8 7.1 1.2 56.9 58.0 4.1 6.5 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.0 6.1 1.2 57.6 58.0 3.3 4.8 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 9.4 6.5 4.9 1.0 58.2 58.9 4.0 5.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.6 6.8 1.1 56.7 58.1 4.1 4.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.4 5.3 1.3 59.1 58.7 3.7 6.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 5.0 2.5 5.1 1.2 58.4 58.4 0.4 1.7 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.7 7.2 1.1 54.9 58.0 3.3 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------