***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9.8 11.8 10.4 5.2 82.8 81.0 3.6 5.4 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 8.4 9.7 9.8 4.6 77.5 77.0 3.7 5.2 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 10.3 12.2 11.0 5.4 82.2 81.0 3.9 5.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 4.2 6.9 8.0 5.8 87.9 84.4 -2.6 0.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 10.5 13.5 9.9 5.8 88.3 84.7 4.4 6.0 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 9.6 12.5 8.6 5.9 91.5 87.7 3.9 5.5 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 8.2 9.0 9.5 4.5 76.0 76.7 3.5 5.1 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 0.8 2.1 8.2 5.2 85.1 83.5 -2.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 11.0 14.0 10.9 5.6 87.7 84.0 3.7 6.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 10.5 13.0 9.3 5.4 86.0 83.0 3.8 6.9 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 10.6 13.9 10.6 6.0 87.6 84.9 3.7 6.3 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 10.1 12.7 9.1 5.4 86.4 85.0 3.5 6.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 10.1 13.2 10.0 5.7 87.5 85.6 4.9 6.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 10.8 13.4 10.5 5.2 81.7 80.2 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 9.3 11.2 9.4 5.2 84.1 82.3 3.3 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 10.8 14.2 9.8 5.9 88.0 85.8 5.3 6.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.5 8.9 4.0 73.5 74.4 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 9.4 12.3 8.8 5.5 85.9 83.7 3.4 6.2 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 8.5 9.7 10.2 4.8 78.8 77.8 3.7 5.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 5.2 7.6 6.3 4.8 84.0 82.8 0.4 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 11.0 13.6 11.3 5.5 86.3 83.2 4.0 5.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 9.0 9.3 9.4 4.2 74.6 75.3 4.4 5.8 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 9.8 12.3 10.6 5.0 79.6 78.9 4.3 5.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 11.8 13.8 10.7 5.5 83.9 82.2 3.8 6.9 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 9.9 11.5 9.7 5.4 86.4 83.0 3.8 5.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 9.8 12.2 8.0 5.0 88.2 86.9 5.0 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 10.0 11.8 9.9 5.0 83.0 81.3 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 11.2 13.6 9.0 5.7 86.8 84.1 4.7 6.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 5.7 8.7 8.0 5.3 85.8 83.7 0.1 2.4 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 8.5 9.8 10.1 4.8 79.2 78.4 3.8 5.3 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------