***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.0 67.8 68.8 -1.5 -0.5 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 -0.6 -0.2 0.6 1.9 66.6 67.7 -2.5 -1.2 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.1 70.4 70.2 -0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -4.6 -3.4 -1.8 2.0 67.4 68.4 -6.8 -5.0 -3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 2.2 72.3 71.0 -2.3 -1.8 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 -1.8 -1.8 -3.1 2.0 73.8 70.5 -3.2 -2.6 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 2.0 67.2 67.5 -2.1 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -6.6 -6.0 -2.9 2.2 73.1 71.4 -8.7 -8.1 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 -0.2 -0.1 -0.8 2.1 72.6 70.9 -1.6 -0.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 -0.3 -0.2 -2.3 2.1 72.3 71.0 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 2.3 74.2 72.4 -1.9 -0.9 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -2.1 -1.9 -1.9 2.4 74.6 72.4 -2.8 -2.5 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1 2.3 75.5 72.3 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 0.2 0.2 -1.0 2.1 72.4 69.9 -1.4 -0.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 1.9 66.6 67.6 -1.8 -1.0 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 -0.1 -0.1 -1.9 2.3 74.3 71.9 -1.3 -0.7 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 -0.1 -0.5 0.4 1.8 65.6 65.9 -2.1 -1.1 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 -2.5 -2.5 -2.7 2.2 74.7 71.5 -3.4 -3.2 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 1.9 68.3 68.4 -2.4 -1.1 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -5.1 -4.8 -4.0 2.1 77.5 71.2 -7.2 -5.9 -5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 2.2 70.7 70.5 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 1.9 68.2 67.1 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 -0.9 -0.9 0.4 1.9 70.5 69.2 -2.1 -1.3 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 -0.8 -0.7 -1.0 2.2 72.8 71.2 -1.8 -1.4 -0.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 -0.7 -0.9 -0.1 2.1 69.3 69.3 -2.0 -1.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 -0.5 -0.3 -2.4 2.2 75.5 71.4 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 2.1 69.1 69.0 -2.1 -0.9 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 2.0 67.8 68.2 -3.2 -2.3 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 -2.7 -2.0 -3.2 2.3 76.7 72.4 -5.3 -4.3 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 67.3 68.5 -2.0 -0.7 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------